Lincoln vs Birmingham: model vs market
| Source | Lincoln | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Birmingham below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lincoln vs Birmingham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Birmingham, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 3.32 | 3.27 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.42 | -0.02 |
| Birmingham | 2.08 | 2.15 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lincoln and Birmingham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Lincoln / Birmingham)
- 1.01 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Lincoln / Birmingham)
- 1.35 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lincoln vs Birmingham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lincoln goals. Columns: Birmingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lincoln vs Birmingham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lincoln vs Birmingham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lincoln | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Birmingham | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lincoln or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Birmingham) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 31% | 3.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lincoln and Birmingham recent form
Lincoln
2W 1D 3L
Birmingham
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lincoln at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Birmingham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lincoln at home only, Birmingham away only.
Injuries & availability
Lincoln absences
- E. Wheatley inactive
-
M. Melia
thigh injury
-
T. Darikwa
knee injury
Birmingham absences
- A. Priske health problems
-
M. Leonard
achilles tendon injury
- Paik Seung-Ho health problems
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lincoln lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 G. Wickens
- 3 A. Reach
- 15 S. Bradley
- 25 D. Elerewe
- 4 A. Coubiș
- 24 I. Varfolomeev
- 26 Y. Konak
- 18 B. House
- 16 D. Jefferies
- 7 R. Hackett
- 11 M. Ladefoged
Bench: R. Towler, T. Bayliss, R. Street, I. Olaofe, C. Elder, C. Ogbene, D. Oyegoke, F. Draper, J. Gauci
Birmingham lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Beadle
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 4 C. Klarer
- 5 P. Neumann
- 2 E. Laird
- 14 J. Solis
- 24 T. Iwata
- 17 L. Millar
- 28 J. Stansfield
- 16 P. Roberts
- 9 A. Priske
Bench: L. Buchanan, Carlos Vicente, D. Gray, M. Bird, T. Gardner-Hickman, R. Allsop, B. Osayi-Samuel, L. Vázquez, M. Ducksch
Lincoln vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Lincoln 0 · draws 0 · Birmingham 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Birmingham | 1-0 | Lincoln | League One |
| 2025-01-11 | Birmingham | 2-1 | Lincoln | England FA Cup |
| 2024-10-19 | Lincoln | 1-3 | Birmingham | League One |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham 2026-10-30
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Stoke City vs Preston — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Lincoln, previous: Lincoln vs Burnley prediction
- Lincoln, next: Watford – Lincoln, 2026-11-03
- Birmingham, previous: Cardiff v Birmingham analysis
- Birmingham, next: Birmingham v Millwall analysis