Updated

England Championship · Matchday 13

Norwich vs Watford

· Carrow Road, Norwich· Referee Ben Speedie

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Norwich to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NorwichDrawWatford

Norwich vs Watford: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNorwichDrawWatford
Model61%21%17%
Market63%21%16%
Published62%21%17%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.13.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Norwich vs Watford odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Norwich, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.60Now 1.50 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Norwich1.601.50-0.10
Draw4.234.45+0.22
Watford4.805.78+0.98

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Norwich and Watford expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.23Norwich
1.13Watford
Total expected goals
3.35
Attack rating (Norwich / Watford)
1.16 / 0.69
Defence rating (Norwich / Watford)
1.35 / 1.34

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Norwich vs Watford score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 3.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 1 6.9% 9.7% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 2 8.7% 9.8% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% 3 6.4% 7.2% 4.1% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 6.0% 6.8% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5%

Rows: Norwich goals. Columns: Watford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Norwich vs Watford goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Norwich vs Watford

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Norwich62%1.60
Draw21%4.72
Watford17%6.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.54
Under 2.535%2.87
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (Norwich or draw)83%1.20
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Watford)38%2.65
Handicap -1Norwich win by 2+40%2.52
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Norwich and Watford recent form

Norwich 1W 0D 5L
Watford 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Norwich at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.

Watford away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Norwich at home only, Watford away only.

Injuries & availability

Norwich absences

  • A. Ahmed knee injury
  • G. Forsyth lacking match fitness
  • M. Topic lacking match fitness
  • M. Toure shoulder injury
  • P. A. Diallo injury
  • P. Mattsson health problems

Watford absences

  • E. Bove knee injury
  • J. Ngakia thigh injury
  • K. Baah knock
  • M. Antonio inactive
  • S. Coulibaly hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Norwich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 D. Grimshaw
  2. 14 B. Chrisene
  3. 33 J. Córdoba
  4. 15 Ruairi McConville
  5. 3 J. Stacey
  6. 26 S. Field
  7. 16 Jacob Wright
  8. 49 A. Musaba
  9. 25 P. Maghoma
  10. 11 A. Brooks
  11. 30 M. Kvistgaarden

Bench: V. Kovačević, H. Darling, L. Mahovo, D. Yongwa, A. Crnac, A. Ben Slimane, M. Topić, J. Makama, K. Fisher

Watford lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 F. Ravaglia
  2. 33 J. Zemura
  3. 29 Branimir Mlačić
  4. 6 M. Pollock
  5. 4 K. Keben
  6. 15 K. Diatta
  7. 22 M. Payero
  8. 5 H. Kyprianou
  9. 39 E. Kayembe
  10. 10 M. Boadu
  11. 17 Iker Bravo

Bench: O. Maamma, R. Vata, M. Bola, M. Doumbia, Amin Nabizada, O. Traoré, D. Bachmann, S. Mavididi, Travis Akomeah

Norwich vs Watford head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Norwich 5 · draws 0 · Watford 5.

NorwichDrawsWatford
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-29Norwich0-1WatfordEngland Championship
2025-12-06Watford3-2NorwichEngland Championship
2025-08-12Watford1-2NorwichLeague Cup
2025-02-01Watford0-1NorwichChampionship
2024-09-21Norwich4-1WatfordChampionship
2024-02-13Norwich4-2WatfordChampionship
2023-11-28Watford3-2NorwichChampionship
2023-01-02Norwich0-1WatfordChampionship
2022-10-15Watford2-1NorwichChampionship
2022-01-21Watford0-3NorwichPremier League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match