Updated

England Championship · Matchday 12

QPR vs Swansea

· Loftus Road, London· Referee Sam Allison

Full time5 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Swansea to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
QPRDrawSwansea

QPR vs Swansea: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceQPRDrawSwansea
Model27%30%42%
Market38%28%33%
Published35%29%36%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 1.00.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Swansea below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

QPR vs Swansea odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Swansea, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.73Now 2.80 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
QPR2.472.45-0.02
Draw3.343.30-0.04
Swansea2.732.80+0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

QPR and Swansea expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00QPR
1.31Swansea
Total expected goals
2.31
Attack rating (QPR / Swansea)
0.99 / 1.04
Defence rating (QPR / Swansea)
1.03 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

QPR vs Swansea score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.2% 11.7% 8.5% 3.7% 1.6% 1 8.6% 14.3% 8.5% 3.7% 1.6% 2 5.0% 6.5% 4.3% 1.9% 0.8% 3 1.7% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: QPR goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

QPR vs Swansea goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for QPR vs Swansea

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2QPR35%2.82
Draw29%3.46
Swansea36%2.80
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.46
Under 2.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.11
No53%1.90
Double chance1X (QPR or draw)64%1.55
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Swansea)65%1.55
Handicap -1Swansea win by 2+20%4.98
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

QPR and Swansea recent form

QPR 1W 4D 1L
Swansea 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

QPR at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.

Swansea away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-1
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: QPR at home only, Swansea away only.

Injuries & availability

QPR absences

  • A. S. Mbengue knee injury
  • I. Chair muscle injury
  • K. Dembele lacking match fitness
  • N. Madsen injury
  • R. Burrell inactive
  • T. Lamptey inactive

Swansea absences

  • C. Burgess achilles tendon injury
  • J. Key muscle injury
  • Ronald hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

QPR lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 P. Charles
  2. 12 B. Kemper
  3. 5 R. Edwards
  4. 3 J. Dunne
  5. 2 K. Adamson
  6. 40 J. Varane
  7. 11 P. Smyth
  8. 18 G. Kamara
  9. 20 H. Vale
  10. 17 K. Poku
  11. 22 R. Kone

Bench: L. Morrison, K. Dembélé, C. Ward, K. Saito, D. Cirkin, I. Alemayehu, Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu, Rayan Jawad Kolli

Swansea lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 22 L. Vigouroux
  2. 14 J. Tymon
  3. 23 S. Welsh
  4. 5 B. Cabango
  5. 26 F. Lissah
  6. 46 S. Eustáquio
  7. 6 M. Stamenić
  8. 8 E. Just
  9. 30 Joseph Okopu
  10. 33 A. Idah
  11. 7 M. Widell

Bench: A. Fisher, J. Seelt, J. Fulton, Z. Vipotnik, Eom Ji-Sung, J. Monga, Gonçalo Franco, Tiago Parente, R. Stewart

QPR vs Swansea head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: QPR 3 · draws 3 · Swansea 4.

QPRDrawsSwansea
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-21QPR1-2SwanseaEngland Championship
2025-10-22Swansea0-1QPREngland Championship
2025-04-21QPR1-2SwanseaChampionship
2024-12-26Swansea3-0QPRChampionship
2024-04-01Swansea0-1QPRChampionship
2023-09-19QPR1-1SwanseaChampionship
2023-01-21QPR1-1SwanseaChampionship
2022-09-03Swansea1-0QPRChampionship
2022-05-07Swansea0-1QPRChampionship
2022-01-25QPR0-0SwanseaChampionship

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match