Updated

England Championship · Matchday 13

Southampton vs QPR

· St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton· Referee Tim Robinson

Full time4 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Southampton to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SouthamptonDrawQPR

Southampton vs QPR: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSouthamptonDrawQPR
Model46%26%28%
Market49%25%26%
Published48%25%27%
Edge-1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Southampton vs QPR odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Southampton, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.73Now 1.95 +0.22
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Southampton1.731.95+0.22
Draw3.953.77-0.18
QPR4.123.62-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Southampton and QPR expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Southampton
1.28QPR
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (Southampton / QPR)
1.28 / 1.26
Defence rating (Southampton / QPR)
0.84 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Southampton vs QPR score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 5.4% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 1 7.5% 12.1% 7.1% 3.0% 1.3% 2 7.3% 9.4% 6.0% 2.6% 1.1% 3 4.2% 5.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 2.6% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: QPR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Southampton vs QPR goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Southampton vs QPR

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Southampton48%2.08
Draw25%3.95
QPR27%3.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.52
Double chance1X (Southampton or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or QPR)52%1.92
Handicap -1Southampton win by 2+25%3.96
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Southampton and QPR recent form

Southampton 4W 1D 1L
QPR 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Southampton at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-1-0
Win rate
83%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.

QPR away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Southampton at home only, QPR away only.

Injuries & availability

Southampton absences

  • C. Larin hamstring injury
  • F. Downes ankle injury

QPR absences

  • A. S. Mbengue knee injury
  • J. Clarke-Salter injury
  • N. Madsen injury
  • R. Burrell inactive
  • T. Lamptey inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Southampton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Daniel Peretz
  2. 3 R. Manning
  3. 13 K. Schlotterbeck
  4. 5 J. Stephens
  5. 14 J. Bree
  6. 26 Cameron Bragg
  7. 30 J. Ward-Prowse
  8. 7 Léo Scienza
  9. 10 F. Azaz
  10. 27 K. Matsuki
  11. 11 L. Dobbin

Bench: F. Downes, Z. Abbott, N. Wood-Gordon, T. Fellows, S. Edozie, G. Long, D. Mubama, Welington, Barnaby Williams

QPR lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 P. Charles
  2. 12 B. Kemper
  3. 5 R. Edwards
  4. 3 J. Dunne
  5. 2 K. Adamson
  6. 20 H. Vale
  7. 18 G. Kamara
  8. 40 J. Varane
  9. 17 K. Poku
  10. 11 P. Smyth
  11. 22 R. Kone

Bench: J. Clarke-Salter, K. Dembélé, I. Chair, C. Ward, K. Saito, A. Lloyd, D. Cirkin, I. Alemayehu, Rayan Jawad Kolli

Southampton vs QPR head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Southampton 7 · draws 0 · QPR 1.

SouthamptonDrawsQPR
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-24Southampton5-0QPREngland Championship
2025-11-05QPR1-2SouthamptonEngland Championship
2023-12-23QPR0-1SouthamptonChampionship
2023-08-26Southampton2-1QPRChampionship
2015-02-07QPR0-1SouthamptonPremier League
2014-09-27Southampton2-1QPRPremier League
2013-03-02Southampton1-2QPRPremier League
2012-11-17QPR1-3SouthamptonPremier League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match