Updated

England Championship · Matchday 13

Millwall vs Derby

· The Den, London· Referee Anthony Backhouse

Full time4 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Millwall to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MillwallDrawDerby

Millwall vs Derby: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMillwallDrawDerby
Model54%26%21%
Market57%24%19%
Published56%25%19%
Edge-1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Millwall vs Derby odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Millwall, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.70Now 1.65 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Millwall1.701.65-0.05
Draw3.743.85+0.11
Derby4.604.90+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Millwall and Derby expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Millwall
1.01Derby
Total expected goals
2.77
Attack rating (Millwall / Derby)
1.00 / 0.74
Defence rating (Millwall / Derby)
1.13 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Millwall vs Derby score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 5.2% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1 9.9% 12.3% 5.7% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.7% 9.8% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3 5.7% 5.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 3.7% 3.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Millwall goals. Columns: Derby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Millwall vs Derby goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Millwall vs Derby

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Millwall56%1.79
Draw25%4.05
Derby19%5.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.91
Under 2.548%2.10
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.17
Double chance1X (Millwall or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Derby)44%2.26
Handicap -1Millwall win by 2+31%3.27
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Millwall and Derby recent form

Millwall 1W 3D 2L
Derby 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Millwall at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.83
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.

Derby away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-3
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Millwall at home only, Derby away only.

Injuries & availability

Millwall absences

  • C. De Norre muscle injury
  • F. Marschall injury
  • J. Coburn muscle injury
  • L. Jensen muscle injury
  • M. Luongo knee injury
  • M. Servais inactive
  • T. Arconte ankle injury

Derby absences

  • C. Forsyth knee injury
  • C. Taylor injury
  • D. Murkin hamstring injury
  • D. Sanderson suspended
  • E. Cashin inactive
  • L. Travis ankle injury
  • M. Clarke calf injury
  • P. Agyemang achilles tendon injury
  • S. Langas injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Millwall lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 15 M. Crocombe
  2. 3 Zak Norton Sturge
  3. 5 J. Cooper
  4. 6 C. Taylor
  5. 4 T. Crama
  6. 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
  7. 14 Jenson Metcalfe
  8. 22 K. Lisbie
  9. 25 L. Cundle
  10. 10 C. Neghli
  11. 13 L. Dykes

Bench: M. Ivanović, R. Esse, E. Baggott, D. Kelly, M. Sykes, R. Leonard, J. Coburn, G. Evans, A. Doughty

Derby lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Widell Zetterström
  2. 26 R. Hedges
  3. 14 J. Robinson
  4. 24 R. Nyambe
  5. 22 M. Johnston
  6. 4 D. Ozoh
  7. 8 B. Clark
  8. 10 R. Brewster
  9. 11 S. Szmodics
  10. 19 H. Meister
  11. 9 C. Morris

Bench: F. Bilbija, L. Salvesen, M. Fuseini, A. Mowatt, S. Duffy, O. Fraulo, J. Vickers, C. Blackett-Taylor, I. Gordon

Millwall vs Derby head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Millwall 5 · draws 3 · Derby 2.

MillwallDrawsDerby
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-10Millwall1-0DerbyEngland Championship
2025-12-10Derby1-1MillwallEngland Championship
2025-02-22Derby0-1MillwallChampionship
2024-10-19Millwall1-1DerbyChampionship
2022-02-23Derby1-2MillwallChampionship
2021-11-06Millwall1-1DerbyChampionship
2021-03-13Derby0-1MillwallChampionship
2020-12-05Millwall0-1DerbyChampionship
2020-06-20Millwall2-3DerbyChampionship
2019-12-14Derby0-1MillwallChampionship

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match