Updated

England Championship · Matchday 12

Stoke City vs Bristol City

· bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent· Referee James Bell

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Stoke City to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Stoke CityDrawBristol City

Stoke City vs Bristol City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStoke CityDrawBristol City
Model51%28%22%
Market38%29%33%
Published41%29%30%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Stoke City below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Stoke City vs Bristol City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stoke City, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.25Now 2.45 +0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Stoke City2.252.45+0.20
Draw3.323.27-0.05
Bristol City3.002.88-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Stoke City and Bristol City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.57Stoke City
0.96Bristol City
Total expected goals
2.53
Attack rating (Stoke City / Bristol City)
1.15 / 0.79
Defence rating (Stoke City / Bristol City)
0.99 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stoke City vs Bristol City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 6.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 1 11.3% 13.2% 5.8% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.8% 9.4% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 5.2% 4.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 2.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Bristol City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stoke City vs Bristol City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stoke City vs Bristol City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Stoke City41%2.41
Draw29%3.50
Bristol City30%3.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.15
Under 2.554%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.00
No50%2.00
Double chance1X (Stoke City or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Bristol City)59%1.71
Handicap -1Stoke City win by 2+27%3.70
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Stoke City and Bristol City recent form

Stoke City 4W 1D 1L
Bristol City 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stoke City at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Bristol City away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Stoke City at home only, Bristol City away only.

Injuries & availability

Stoke City absences

  • A. Ampah knee injury
  • A. Cresswell knee injury
  • E. Bocat injury
  • S. Gallagher injury
  • S. Ingelsson muscle injury

Bristol City absences

  • E. Adebayo inactive
  • N. Eile illness
  • R. Dickie knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Stoke City lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 V. Johansson
  2. 5 L. Graham
  3. 18 B. Lawal
  4. 16 B. Wilmot
  5. 21 L. Bombino
  6. 8 E. Galbraith
  7. 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
  8. 2 B. Johnson
  9. 13 J. Devenny
  10. 11 L. Cissé
  11. 7 J. McGlynn

Bench: B. Pearson, R. Boženík, Bae Jun-Ho, G. Hirst, T. Rigo, J. Tchamadeu, B. Gibson, J. Griffiths, M. Talovierov

Bristol City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 40 B. Collins
  2. 3 C. Pring
  3. 15 L. McNally
  4. 2 L. Eissat
  5. 19 G. Tanner
  6. 27 G. Yah
  7. 12 J. Knight
  8. 8 J. Williams
  9. 9 L. Tolaj
  10. 21 Rio Cardines
  11. 23 D. Ballard

Bench: S. Tickle, A. Randell, R. Atkinson, B. De Keersmaecker, Y. Hirakawa, S. Twine, S. Bell, J. Wallace, S. Greenwood

Stoke City vs Bristol City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Stoke City 4 · draws 1 · Bristol City 5.

Stoke CityDrawsBristol City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Bristol City2-0Stoke CityEngland Championship
2025-11-01Stoke City5-1Bristol CityEngland Championship
2025-02-12Bristol City2-0Stoke CityChampionship
2024-10-22Stoke City2-2Bristol CityChampionship
2024-05-04Stoke City4-0Bristol CityChampionship
2023-09-30Bristol City2-3Stoke CityChampionship
2023-04-07Stoke City1-2Bristol CityChampionship
2022-12-17Bristol City1-2Stoke CityChampionship
2022-04-15Stoke City0-1Bristol CityChampionship
2021-11-24Bristol City1-0Stoke CityChampionship

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match