Updated

England Championship · Matchday 13

Stoke City vs Preston

· bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent· Referee Adam Herczeg

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Stoke City to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Stoke CityDrawPreston

Stoke City vs Preston: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStoke CityDrawPreston
Model71%19%10%
Market53%25%22%
Published58%24%19%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.74.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Stoke City below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Stoke City vs Preston odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stoke City, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.69Now 1.75 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Stoke City1.691.75+0.06
Draw3.803.72-0.08
Preston4.684.33-0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Stoke City and Preston expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.25Stoke City
0.74Preston
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (Stoke City / Preston)
1.05 / 0.69
Defence rating (Stoke City / Preston)
0.88 / 1.50

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stoke City vs Preston score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1 10.5% 9.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 2 12.7% 9.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3 9.6% 7.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 9.1% 6.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%

Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Preston goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stoke City vs Preston goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stoke City vs Preston

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Stoke City58%1.73
Draw24%4.23
Preston19%5.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.10
No52%1.91
Double chance1X (Stoke City or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Preston)42%2.37
Handicap -1Stoke City win by 2+48%2.08
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Stoke City and Preston recent form

Stoke City 4W 1D 1L
Preston 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stoke City at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Preston away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Stoke City at home only, Preston away only.

Injuries & availability

Stoke City absences

  • A. Ampah knee injury
  • A. Cresswell knee injury
  • E. Bocat injury
  • S. Gallagher injury
  • S. Ingelsson muscle injury

Preston absences

  • A. McCann hamstring injury
  • H. Clarke knee injury
  • L. Gibbs muscle injury
  • L. Gibson inactive
  • L. Lindsay injury
  • T. Carroll ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Stoke City lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 V. Johansson
  2. 5 L. Graham
  3. 18 B. Lawal
  4. 16 B. Wilmot
  5. 21 L. Bombino
  6. 8 E. Galbraith
  7. 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
  8. 2 B. Johnson
  9. 13 J. Devenny
  10. 9 R. Boženík
  11. 7 J. McGlynn

Bench: B. Pearson, S. Ingelsson, Bae Jun-Ho, G. Hirst, T. Rigo, J. Tchamadeu, J. Griffiths, M. Talovierov, M. Manhoef

Preston lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 D. Iversen
  2. 16 A. Hughes
  3. 14 J. Storey
  4. 24 O. Offiah
  5. 3 A. Vukčević
  6. 15 J. Thompson
  7. 27 L. Leroy
  8. 44 B. Potts
  9. 10 C. Lang
  10. 38 J. Kenny
  11. 37 D. Burgzorg

Bench: L. Lindsay, A. Devine, J. Erabi, T. Small, C. Wiley, S. Mills, L. Nicholls, A. Moran, Ed Nolan

Stoke City vs Preston head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Stoke City 2 · draws 4 · Preston 4.

Stoke CityDrawsPreston
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-20Preston3-1Stoke CityEngland Championship
2025-12-26Stoke City0-0PrestonEngland Championship
2025-04-05Preston1-1Stoke CityChampionship
2024-11-26Stoke City0-0PrestonChampionship
2024-03-09Preston1-2Stoke CityChampionship
2023-09-02Stoke City0-2PrestonChampionship
2023-01-02Stoke City0-1PrestonChampionship
2022-10-15Preston0-2Stoke CityChampionship
2022-01-03Stoke City1-2PrestonChampionship
2021-09-28Preston1-1Stoke CityChampionship

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match