ADO Den Haag 2-1 PSV Eindhoven: Prediction vs Result 17.10.26

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ADO Den Haag	Draw	PSV Eindhoven
Model	20%	20%	60%
Market	11%	15%	74%
Published	13%	16%	71%
Edge	+2%	+1%	-4%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.39.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven odds movement

Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.25Now 1.25 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
ADO Den Haag	9.20	8.34	-0.86
Draw	6.25	6.40	+0.15
PSV Eindhoven	1.25	1.25	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39ADO Den Haag

2.45PSV Eindhoven

Total expected goals: 3.85
Attack rating (ADO Den Haag / PSV Eindhoven): 1.01 / 1.49
Defence rating (ADO Den Haag / PSV Eindhoven): 1.10 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 4.5% 6.4% 5.3% 5.8% 1 2.2% 8.0% 8.9% 7.3% 8.0% 2 2.1% 5.1% 6.2% 5.1% 5.6% 3 1.0% 2.4% 2.9% 2.4% 2.6% 4+ 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2%

Rows: ADO Den Haag goals. Columns: PSV Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 54%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ADO Den Haag	13%	7.49
	Draw	16%	6.27
	PSV Eindhoven	71%	1.41
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.35
	Under 2.5	26%	3.83
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.27
Double chance	1X (ADO Den Haag or draw)	29%	3.41
	12 (either side)	84%	1.19
	X2 (draw or PSV Eindhoven)	87%	1.15
Handicap -1	PSV Eindhoven win by 2+	40%	2.52
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven recent form

ADO Den Haag 0W 3D 3L

PSV Eindhoven 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ADO Den Haag at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 2.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

PSV Eindhoven away

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-1
Win rate: 75%
Goals for / match: 3.25
Goals against / match: 1.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: ADO Den Haag at home only, PSV Eindhoven away only.

Injuries & availability

ADO Den Haag absences

D. Barany thigh injury
L. Reischl groin injury
M. Hokke suspended

PSV Eindhoven absences

A. Nagalo injury
A. Plea surgery
J. Schouten knee injury
K. Sildillia surgery
P. Wanner foot injury
R. Pepi injury
S. Lammers lacking match fitness
S. Ouaissa muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

ADO Den Haag lineup · 5-3-2

1 K. Nikiéma
18 S. Sylla
22 L. Wilhelm
4 M. Waem
3 P. Mulder
5 J. Jensen-Abbew
8 J. Žambůrek
11 E. Rottier
25 J. Kilo
9 J. Bal
46 Y. Eduardo

Bench: O. Raterink, D. van Mieghem, Illaijh de Ruijter, M. Jiménez, Finn de Bruin, J. Hawkins, C. Peupion, N. Thiede, N. Thomas, M. Šín

PSV Eindhoven lineup · 4-2-3-1

32 M. Kovář
18 F. Kostić
4 A. Obispo
2 L. Geertruida
8 S. Dest
17 Mauro Júnior
24 K. Sano
35 A. Santos
20 G. Til
27 D. Man
21 S. Mijnans

Bench: N. Olij, Yarek Gasiorowski, I. Perišić, R. Flamingo, E. Bajraktarevic, M. Hansen, N. Fernandez, A. Bouhamdi, S. Cornecion, T. Smolenaars

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: ADO Den Haag 0 · draws 3 · PSV Eindhoven 7.

0% 30% 70%

ADO Den HaagDrawsPSV Eindhoven

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2023-03-02	PSV Eindhoven	3-1	ADO Den Haag	KNVB Beker
2021-02-13	ADO Den Haag	2-2	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
2020-11-01	PSV Eindhoven	4-0	ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie
2020-02-15	ADO Den Haag	0-3	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
2019-08-11	PSV Eindhoven	3-1	ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie
2019-04-21	PSV Eindhoven	3-1	ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie
2018-09-15	ADO Den Haag	0-7	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
2018-04-29	ADO Den Haag	3-3	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
2017-12-16	PSV Eindhoven	3-0	ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie
2017-04-15	ADO Den Haag	1-1	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie

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Before and after this match

ADO Den Haag, previous: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag prediction
ADO Den Haag, next: ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen analysis
PSV Eindhoven, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven analysis
PSV Eindhoven, next: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: odds and pick