Telstar vs Feyenoord: model vs market
| Source | Telstar | Draw | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Market | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| Published | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Telstar vs Feyenoord odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Feyenoord, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar | 7.50 | 8.20 | +0.70 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.48 | -0.02 |
| Feyenoord | 1.33 | 1.33 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Telstar and Feyenoord expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Telstar / Feyenoord)
- 0.79 / 1.61
- Defence rating (Telstar / Feyenoord)
- 0.96 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Telstar vs Feyenoord score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Telstar goals. Columns: Feyenoord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Telstar vs Feyenoord goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Telstar vs Feyenoord
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Telstar | 13% | 7.76 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Feyenoord | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Telstar or draw) | 31% | 3.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Feyenoord) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win by 2+ | 41% | 2.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Telstar and Feyenoord recent form
Telstar
0W 3D 3L
Feyenoord
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Telstar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Feyenoord away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Telstar at home only, Feyenoord away only.
Injuries & availability
Feyenoord absences
-
B. Nieuwkoop
knee injury
-
G. Smal
ankle injury
-
J. Bos
knee injury
-
J. Moder
knee injury
-
R. Nelson
muscle injury
- S. van Persie knock
-
T. Beelen
broken leg
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Telstar lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 R. Koeman
- 43 M. Peersman
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 16 S. Valk
- 3 Gerald Alders
- 17 N. Rossen
- 10 T. Owusu
- 23 N. Shenkman
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 11 N. Þórisson
- 42 A. Martha
Bench: J. Hardeveld, P. Aning, Isaiah Ahmed, E. Demircan, Jelani Seedorf, Finn Mulder, H. Kuster, G. Caschili, F. Rust, D. Reiziger, F. Turay, R. Oudsten
Feyenoord lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Ernst
- 35 Mika Màrmol
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 26 G. Read
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 27 G. Diarra
- 14 S. Steijn
- 23 A. Hadj-Moussa
- 19 Nacho Ferri
Bench: J. St. Juste, L. Valente, Gonçalo Borges, Javi López, M. Deijl, T. van den Elshout, O. Targhalline, T. Wessels, F. Kastenmeier, L. Bossin, J. Schaken
Telstar vs Feyenoord head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Telstar 0 · draws 0 · Feyenoord 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Feyenoord | 2-1 | Telstar | Eredivisie |
| 2025-11-30 | Telstar | 1-2 | Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Heerenveen vs Excelsior — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven 2026-10-17
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II 2026-10-17
- PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles — match page 2026-10-18
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar 2026-10-18
- Groningen v Ajax — match page 2026-10-18
- NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard — match page 2026-10-18
- Twente vs Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Telstar, previous: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag prediction
- Telstar, next: GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar: odds and pick
- Feyenoord, previous: Feyenoord vs Como prediction
- Feyenoord, next: Real Betis – Feyenoord, 2026-10-21