Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 9

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard

· Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen· Referee Alex Bos

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was NEC Nijmegen to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NEC NijmegenDrawFortuna Sittard

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNEC NijmegenDrawFortuna Sittard
Model36%26%38%
Market54%23%22%
Published50%24%26%
Edge-5%+1%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard odds movement

Median bookmaker price on NEC Nijmegen, 32 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.42Now 1.74 +0.32
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
NEC Nijmegen1.421.74+0.32
Draw4.854.05-0.80
Fortuna Sittard6.204.29-1.91

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50NEC Nijmegen
1.57Fortuna Sittard
Total expected goals
3.07
Attack rating (NEC Nijmegen / Fortuna Sittard)
0.76 / 0.92
Defence rating (NEC Nijmegen / Fortuna Sittard)
1.13 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 6.2% 5.7% 3.0% 1.7% 1 5.9% 12.0% 8.6% 4.5% 2.5% 2 5.2% 8.2% 6.4% 3.4% 1.9% 3 2.6% 4.1% 3.2% 1.7% 0.9% 4+ 1.4% 2.1% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5%

Rows: NEC Nijmegen goals. Columns: Fortuna Sittard goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2NEC Nijmegen50%2.01
Draw24%4.15
Fortuna Sittard26%3.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.68
Double chance1X (NEC Nijmegen or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Fortuna Sittard)50%1.99
Handicap -1NEC Nijmegen win by 2+17%5.76
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard recent form

NEC Nijmegen 0W 4D 2L
Fortuna Sittard 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

NEC Nijmegen at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Fortuna Sittard away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen at home only, Fortuna Sittard away only.

Injuries & availability

NEC Nijmegen absences

  • A. Thomas inactive
  • B. Nuytinck ankle injury
  • D. Tadic injury
  • E. Mor groin injury
  • P. Sandler injury

Fortuna Sittard absences

  • I. Marquez injury
  • J. Dahlhaus inactive
  • R. Bayram knee injury
  • Y. Oukili groin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

NEC Nijmegen lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Crettaz
  2. 24 Deveron Fonville
  3. 22 A. Kaplan
  4. 21 T. Storm
  5. 99 Clement Bischoff
  6. 35 Jamiro Monteiro
  7. 6 D. Nejašmić
  8. 34 Kevin Kers
  9. 20 N. Lebreton
  10. 18 D. Geiger
  11. 30 B. Linssen

Bench: P. Schuurs, M. Bakker, I. Hansen-Aarøen, T. Chery, W. Willumsson, N. Polster, K. Sierhuis, Adam Tahaui, Joep Geneste, Y. Moslih, Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar, Gabriel Brás

Fortuna Sittard lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 31 M. Branderhorst
  2. 23 P. Brittijn
  3. 28 Justin Quincy Hubner
  4. 3 Rodrigo Guth
  5. 6 S. van Ottele
  6. 12 Ivo Pinto
  7. 22 Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
  8. 20 É. Michut
  9. 52 M. Ihattaren
  10. 25 L. Zeefuik
  11. 9 A. Descotte

Bench: L. Koopmans, S. Wylin, K. Peterson, S. Simons, N. de Groot, D. Sinkgraven, K. Reitmaier, Moussa Gbemou, Ganni Buyukhan

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 4 · draws 3 · Fortuna Sittard 3.

NEC NijmegenDrawsFortuna Sittard
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-28NEC Nijmegen2-3Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2025-08-31Fortuna Sittard3-2NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2025-01-19NEC Nijmegen4-1Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2024-08-31Fortuna Sittard0-3NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2024-04-02Fortuna Sittard1-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2023-12-15NEC Nijmegen4-1Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2023-05-28Fortuna Sittard1-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2022-10-19NEC Nijmegen3-2Fortuna SittardKNVB Beker
2022-09-10NEC Nijmegen1-1Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2022-05-15NEC Nijmegen0-1Fortuna SittardEredivisie

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match