Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 10

ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen

· Bingoal Stadion, The Hague· Referee Jannick van der Laan

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Heerenveen to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ADO Den HaagDrawHeerenveen

ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceADO Den HaagDrawHeerenveen
Model35%26%39%
Market28%24%48%
Published29%25%46%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Heerenveen, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.02Now 1.97 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
ADO Den Haag3.153.40+0.25
Draw3.823.90+0.08
Heerenveen2.021.97-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48ADO Den Haag
1.60Heerenveen
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (ADO Den Haag / Heerenveen)
1.02 / 0.99
Defence rating (ADO Den Haag / Heerenveen)
1.07 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 6.3% 5.9% 3.1% 1.8% 1 5.7% 12.0% 8.7% 4.7% 2.7% 2 5.0% 8.0% 6.4% 3.4% 2.0% 3 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 4+ 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5%

Rows: ADO Den Haag goals. Columns: Heerenveen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ADO Den Haag29%3.39
Draw25%4.05
Heerenveen46%2.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.47
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.69
Double chance1X (ADO Den Haag or draw)54%1.85
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Heerenveen)71%1.42
Handicap -1Heerenveen win by 2+20%4.89
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen recent form

ADO Den Haag 1W 3D 2L
Heerenveen 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ADO Den Haag at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Heerenveen away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: ADO Den Haag at home only, Heerenveen away only.

Injuries & availability

ADO Den Haag absences

  • D. Barany thigh injury
  • L. Reischl groin injury

Heerenveen absences

  • D. Proper hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

ADO Den Haag lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 K. Nikiéma
  2. 18 S. Sylla
  3. 4 M. Waem
  4. 3 P. Mulder
  5. 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
  6. 11 E. Rottier
  7. 25 J. Kilo
  8. 33 M. Šín
  9. 17 J. Hawkins
  10. 46 Y. Eduardo
  11. 9 J. Bal

Bench: O. Raterink, D. van Mieghem, J. Žambůrek, Illaijh de Ruijter, M. Jiménez, M. Hokke, Finn de Bruin, C. Peupion, L. Wilhelm, N. Thiede, N. Thomas

Heerenveen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Klaverboer
  2. 19 V. Zagaritis
  3. 3 M. Willemsen
  4. 4 S. Kersten
  5. 45 O. Braude
  6. 8 N. Courtens
  7. 16 M. Linday
  8. 7 M. Rivera
  9. 10 R. Meerveld
  10. 20 J. Trenskow
  11. 9 D. Vente

Bench: M. Hilgers, L. Oyen, M. Egbring, R. Uldriķis, M. Farji, D. Bladi, H. Petrov, L. Machine, T. Schreuder, A. Noppert, Anass Bouziane

ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: ADO Den Haag 0 · draws 4 · Heerenveen 6.

ADO Den HaagDrawsHeerenveen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-03-06Heerenveen3-0ADO Den HaagEredivisie
2020-11-28ADO Den Haag1-1HeerenveenEredivisie
2020-02-22Heerenveen2-2ADO Den HaagEredivisie
2019-11-03ADO Den Haag1-1HeerenveenEredivisie
2019-03-09ADO Den Haag2-3HeerenveenEredivisie
2018-09-29Heerenveen1-1ADO Den HaagEredivisie
2018-04-17Heerenveen2-0ADO Den HaagEredivisie
2017-08-26ADO Den Haag1-2HeerenveenEredivisie
2017-01-14Heerenveen2-0ADO Den HaagEredivisie
2016-09-24ADO Den Haag0-3HeerenveenEredivisie

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match