Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 9

PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles

· MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle· Referee Danny Makkelie

Full time4 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was GO Ahead Eagles to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PEC ZwolleDrawGO Ahead Eagles

PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePEC ZwolleDrawGO Ahead Eagles
Model17%19%64%
Market26%25%49%
Published24%23%53%
Edge-2%-1%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.27.
  • The market prices GO Ahead Eagles below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles odds movement

Median bookmaker price on GO Ahead Eagles, 31 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.27Now 1.91 -0.36
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
PEC Zwolle2.753.59+0.84
Draw3.803.82+0.02
GO Ahead Eagles2.271.91-0.36

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

PEC Zwolle and GO Ahead Eagles expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27PEC Zwolle
2.54GO Ahead Eagles
Total expected goals
3.81
Attack rating (PEC Zwolle / GO Ahead Eagles)
0.61 / 1.15
Defence rating (PEC Zwolle / GO Ahead Eagles)
1.47 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 4.9% 7.1% 6.0% 7.0% 1 2.1% 7.9% 9.1% 7.7% 9.0% 2 1.8% 4.5% 5.8% 4.9% 5.7% 3 0.8% 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 4+ 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0%

Rows: PEC Zwolle goals. Columns: GO Ahead Eagles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2PEC Zwolle24%4.20
Draw23%4.31
GO Ahead Eagles53%1.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.36
Under 2.527%3.75
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.49
No33%3.03
Double chance1X (PEC Zwolle or draw)47%2.13
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or GO Ahead Eagles)76%1.31
Handicap -1GO Ahead Eagles win by 2+44%2.28
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

PEC Zwolle and GO Ahead Eagles recent form

PEC Zwolle 1W 1D 4L
GO Ahead Eagles 1W 4D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

PEC Zwolle at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
3.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GO Ahead Eagles away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: PEC Zwolle at home only, GO Ahead Eagles away only.

Injuries & availability

PEC Zwolle absences

  • F. Krastev achilles tendon injury
  • Y. Namli knee injury

GO Ahead Eagles absences

  • J. Dirksen inactive
  • P. Saathof knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

PEC Zwolle lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Schendelaar
  2. 2 S. Floranus
  3. 24 N. Viergever
  4. 28 S. Graves
  5. 3 O. Aertssen
  6. 8 T. Sommer
  7. 30 R. Thomas
  8. 37 Gilles van der Wal
  9. 25 T. Oosting
  10. 11 D. Mbayo
  11. 17 S. van Hooijdonk

Bench: T. Velthuis, Jan Bürger, E. Sørensen, K. Kostons, T. de Graaff, O. Velanas, G. Reiziger, I. Cissoko, Jadiel Pereira da Gama, D. van der Haar, N. Fichtinger, D. Verduin

GO Ahead Eagles lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 K. Haug
  2. 5 D. James
  3. 4 J. Kramer
  4. 25 G. van Zwam
  5. 2 A. Sampsted
  6. 8 E. Linthorst
  7. 21 M. Meulensteen
  8. 17 M. Suray
  9. 10 S. Tengstedt
  10. 16 V. Edvardsen
  11. 9 S. Sigurðarson

Bench: G. Nauber, T. Jukić, O. Sivertsen, R. Weijenberg, R. Margaret, T. Baeten, J. Dirksen, Tomas Galvez, E. Flataker, T. Hulleman, N. Verdoni, Y. Rahmouni

PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: PEC Zwolle 2 · draws 4 · GO Ahead Eagles 4.

PEC ZwolleDrawsGO Ahead Eagles
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05GO Ahead Eagles5-0PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2025-09-21PEC Zwolle0-2GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
2025-05-11PEC Zwolle1-1GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
2024-11-03GO Ahead Eagles2-2PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2024-02-11GO Ahead Eagles1-1PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2023-09-17PEC Zwolle1-1GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
2022-04-03PEC Zwolle0-1GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
2021-09-19GO Ahead Eagles1-0PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2017-03-19GO Ahead Eagles1-3PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2016-10-30PEC Zwolle3-1GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match