Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 11

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam

· Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen· Referee Martijn Vos

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Groningen to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GroningenDrawSparta Rotterdam

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGroningenDrawSparta Rotterdam
Model60%18%22%
Market54%22%24%
Published55%21%23%
Edge+2%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 1.83.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Groningen, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.56Now 1.75 +0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Groningen1.561.75+0.19
Draw4.404.20-0.20
Sparta Rotterdam4.883.98-0.90

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.89Groningen
1.83Sparta Rotterdam
Total expected goals
4.72
Attack rating (Groningen / Sparta Rotterdam)
1.15 / 1.01
Defence rating (Groningen / Sparta Rotterdam)
1.18 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 1 2.1% 5.2% 4.3% 2.6% 1.8% 2 3.7% 6.8% 6.2% 3.8% 2.6% 3 3.6% 6.6% 6.0% 3.7% 2.5% 4+ 5.3% 9.6% 8.8% 5.4% 3.7%

Rows: Groningen goals. Columns: Sparta Rotterdam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 85%
Over 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
80%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Groningen55%1.81
Draw21%4.70
Sparta Rotterdam23%4.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.585%1.18
Under 2.515%6.70
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.25
No20%4.93
Double chance1X (Groningen or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Sparta Rotterdam)45%2.24
Handicap -1Groningen win by 2+41%2.44
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam recent form

Groningen 2W 2D 2L
Sparta Rotterdam 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Groningen at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sparta Rotterdam away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Groningen at home only, Sparta Rotterdam away only.

Injuries & availability

Groningen absences

  • E. van der Laan injury
  • M. Jeng leg injury
  • T. Mercera injury

Sparta Rotterdam absences

  • S. Mito injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Groningen lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 E. Vaessen
  2. 4 M. Csinger
  3. 5 M. Rente
  4. 3 T. Blokzijl
  5. 33 H. Hateboer
  6. 24 P. Clement
  7. 26 T. van Bergen
  8. 8 T. de Jonge
  9. 11 J. Ondrejka
  10. 9 B. Willumsson
  11. 14 J. Schreuders

Bench: Wouter Prins, M. Brandis, L. Štubljar, A. Nordin, T. Land, O. Zawada, Nils Eggens, Tyrique Mercera, P. Boevink, J. Mosselaar, Besnik Mashuku, J. Hall

Sparta Rotterdam lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 M. Brouwer
  2. 5 B. Kuipers
  3. 4 B. Martins Indi
  4. 6 N. Verschuren
  5. 3 M. Young
  6. 2 L. Martes
  7. 11 I. Babadi
  8. 8 Cedric Hatenboer
  9. 10 J. Toornstra
  10. 7 M. van Bergen
  11. 9 M. Zonneveld

Bench: B. Reith, J. Baas, Teo Quintero, G. Vianello, A. Roaldsøy, C. Terho, Robin van Cruijsen, F. Bednarek, S. Mito, Joel Ideho, P. Kuiper

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Groningen 1 · draws 1 · Sparta Rotterdam 8.

GroningenDrawsSparta Rotterdam
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-31Sparta Rotterdam2-0GroningenEredivisie
2025-10-30Sparta Rotterdam5-2GroningenKNVB Beker
2025-10-19Groningen0-2Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2025-02-02Sparta Rotterdam1-0GroningenEredivisie
2024-11-09Groningen1-0Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2023-05-28Groningen0-5Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2022-09-17Sparta Rotterdam2-1GroningenEredivisie
2022-05-07Groningen1-2Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2021-10-17Sparta Rotterdam1-1GroningenEredivisie
2021-05-02Groningen1-2Sparta RotterdamEredivisie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match