Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 11

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

· MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle· Referee Jeroen Manschot

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was PEC Zwolle to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PEC ZwolleDrawADO Den Haag

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePEC ZwolleDrawADO Den Haag
Model31%24%45%
Market42%26%32%
Published39%25%36%
Edge-3%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag odds movement

Median bookmaker price on PEC Zwolle, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.25Now 2.25 -0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
PEC Zwolle2.252.25-0.00
Draw3.623.67+0.04
ADO Den Haag2.842.90+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50PEC Zwolle
1.85ADO Den Haag
Total expected goals
3.35
Attack rating (PEC Zwolle / ADO Den Haag)
0.76 / 0.97
Defence rating (PEC Zwolle / ADO Den Haag)
1.26 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 5.5% 6.0% 3.7% 2.6% 1 4.3% 10.7% 9.0% 5.5% 3.9% 2 4.0% 7.3% 6.8% 4.2% 2.9% 3 2.0% 3.7% 3.4% 2.1% 1.5% 4+ 1.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8%

Rows: PEC Zwolle goals. Columns: ADO Den Haag goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2PEC Zwolle39%2.56
Draw25%3.95
ADO Den Haag36%2.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.54
Under 2.535%2.86
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.98
Double chance1X (PEC Zwolle or draw)64%1.55
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or ADO Den Haag)61%1.64
Handicap -1PEC Zwolle win by 2+15%6.83
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag recent form

PEC Zwolle 1W 1D 4L
ADO Den Haag 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

PEC Zwolle at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ADO Den Haag away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: PEC Zwolle at home only, ADO Den Haag away only.

Injuries & availability

PEC Zwolle absences

  • F. Krastev achilles tendon injury
  • S. Floranus injury

ADO Den Haag absences

  • D. Barany thigh injury
  • L. Reischl groin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

PEC Zwolle lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 J. Schendelaar
  2. 33 D. van der Haar
  3. 24 N. Viergever
  4. 28 S. Graves
  5. 3 O. Aertssen
  6. 8 T. Sommer
  7. 37 Gilles van der Wal
  8. 30 R. Thomas
  9. 11 D. Mbayo
  10. 17 S. van Hooijdonk
  11. 7 Y. Namli

Bench: T. Velthuis, Jan Bürger, E. Sørensen, K. Kostons, T. de Graaff, G. Reiziger, I. Cissoko, T. Oosting, Jadiel Pereira da Gama, N. Fichtinger, D. Verduin, Dylan Ruward

ADO Den Haag lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 K. Nikiéma
  2. 15 M. Hokke
  3. 4 M. Waem
  4. 3 P. Mulder
  5. 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
  6. 33 M. Šín
  7. 11 E. Rottier
  8. 25 J. Kilo
  9. 27 N. Thomas
  10. 46 Y. Eduardo
  11. 17 J. Hawkins

Bench: O. Raterink, D. van Mieghem, J. Žambůrek, J. Bal, Illaijh de Ruijter, M. Jiménez, Finn de Bruin, S. Sylla, C. Peupion, L. Wilhelm, N. Thiede, D. Bárány

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: PEC Zwolle 3 · draws 0 · ADO Den Haag 6.

PEC ZwolleDrawsADO Den Haag
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-02-17ADO Den Haag3-1PEC ZwolleEerste Divisie
2022-09-16PEC Zwolle1-2ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
2021-05-09PEC Zwolle0-1ADO Den HaagEredivisie
2020-12-23ADO Den Haag0-2PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2019-10-20PEC Zwolle3-1ADO Den HaagEredivisie
2019-02-15ADO Den Haag1-0PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2018-11-24PEC Zwolle2-3ADO Den HaagEredivisie
2017-12-22ADO Den Haag4-0PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2017-10-28PEC Zwolle2-0ADO Den HaagEredivisie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match