NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia: Prediction vs Result 15.10.26

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	NEC Nijmegen	Draw	Levski Sofia
Model	16%	25%	58%
Market	50%	26%	24%
Published	42%	26%	33%
Edge	-9%	0%	+9%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on NEC Nijmegen, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.86Now 1.89 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
NEC Nijmegen	1.86	1.89	+0.02
Draw	3.75	3.73	-0.02
Levski Sofia	3.85	3.95	+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.82NEC Nijmegen

1.78Levski Sofia

Total expected goals: 2.59
Attack rating (NEC Nijmegen / Levski Sofia): 0.89 / 1.08
Defence rating (NEC Nijmegen / Levski Sofia): 1.41 / 0.60

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 12.2% 11.8% 7.0% 4.6% 1 5.0% 11.9% 9.6% 5.7% 3.8% 2 2.5% 4.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.5% 3 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: NEC Nijmegen goals. Columns: Levski Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 74%

Over 2.5 48%

Over 3.5 26%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	NEC Nijmegen	42%	2.39
	Draw	26%	3.92
	Levski Sofia	33%	3.07
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	48%	2.10
	Under 2.5	52%	1.91
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.10
	No	52%	1.91
Double chance	1X (NEC Nijmegen or draw)	67%	1.48
	12 (either side)	74%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Levski Sofia)	58%	1.72
Handicap -1	NEC Nijmegen win by 2+	5%	19.44
	Push (exactly one goal)	11%	—