Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 11

Telstar vs Utrecht

· Sportpark Schoonenberg, Felsen· Referee Richard Martens

Full time4 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Utrecht to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TelstarDrawUtrecht

Telstar vs Utrecht: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTelstarDrawUtrecht
Model38%24%38%
Market33%25%42%
Published35%25%41%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Telstar vs Utrecht odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Utrecht, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.30Now 2.25 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Telstar2.712.80+0.09
Draw3.733.75+0.02
Utrecht2.302.25-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Telstar and Utrecht expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Telstar
1.71Utrecht
Total expected goals
3.43
Attack rating (Telstar / Utrecht)
0.84 / 1.00
Defence rating (Telstar / Utrecht)
1.14 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Telstar vs Utrecht score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 4.6% 4.7% 2.7% 1.7% 1 4.6% 10.5% 8.2% 4.7% 2.9% 2 4.8% 8.2% 7.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3 2.7% 4.7% 4.0% 2.3% 1.4% 4+ 1.7% 3.0% 2.5% 1.4% 0.9%

Rows: Telstar goals. Columns: Utrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Telstar vs Utrecht goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Telstar vs Utrecht

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Telstar35%2.89
Draw25%4.02
Utrecht41%2.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%2.99
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.14
Double chance1X (Telstar or draw)59%1.68
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Utrecht)65%1.53
Handicap -1Utrecht win by 2+20%5.05
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Telstar and Utrecht recent form

Telstar 0W 2D 4L
Utrecht 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Telstar at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Utrecht away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Telstar at home only, Utrecht away only.

Injuries & availability

Utrecht absences

  • A. Engwanda hamstring injury
  • K. Paredes knee injury
  • M. Jonathans knee injury
  • N. Ohio knee injury
  • V. Barkas inactive
  • V. Jensen knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Telstar lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 R. Koeman
  2. 43 M. Peersman
  3. 4 A. Soualhia
  4. 16 S. Valk
  5. 18 G. Caschili
  6. 17 N. Rossen
  7. 6 Isaiah Ahmed
  8. 8 E. Demircan
  9. 10 T. Owusu
  10. 42 A. Martha
  11. 11 N. Þórisson

Bench: J. Hardeveld, P. Aning, Finn Mulder, H. Kuster, N. Nwankwo, F. Rust, D. Reiziger, F. Turay, N. Shenkman, R. Oudsten

Utrecht lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 S. Padt
  2. 92 A. Zagré
  3. 5 N. Panagiotou
  4. 3 M. Didden
  5. 2 S. Horemans
  6. 38 O. Agougil
  7. 8 J. van Overeem
  8. 10 Y. Cathline
  9. 80 M. Broholm
  10. 23 N. Vesterlund
  11. 20 D. de Wit

Bench: V. Barkas, G. Offerhaus, Artem Stepanov, Ángel Alarcón, A. Blake, S. van Duijn, J. Medić, N. Ogidi Nwankwo, M. Eppink, P. Kloosterboer, D. van den Berg, N. Amrabat

Telstar vs Utrecht head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Telstar 0 · draws 1 · Utrecht 1.

TelstarDrawsUtrecht
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Utrecht4-1TelstarEredivisie
2025-11-23Telstar1-1UtrechtEredivisie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match