Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 11

Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard

· Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam· Referee Joey Kooij

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Feyenoord to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FeyenoordDrawFortuna Sittard

Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFeyenoordDrawFortuna Sittard
Model64%19%17%
Market82%12%6%
Published78%13%9%
Edge-5%+2%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.30.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Feyenoord, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.13Now 1.15 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Feyenoord1.131.15+0.02
Draw8.258.15-0.10
Fortuna Sittard15.3814.84-0.54

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.56Feyenoord
1.30Fortuna Sittard
Total expected goals
3.86
Attack rating (Feyenoord / Fortuna Sittard)
1.41 / 0.97
Defence rating (Feyenoord / Fortuna Sittard)
0.87 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1 4.7% 7.7% 4.5% 2.0% 0.8% 2 6.9% 9.0% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3 5.9% 7.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 7.0% 9.1% 5.9% 2.5% 1.1%

Rows: Feyenoord goals. Columns: Fortuna Sittard goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Feyenoord78%1.29
Draw13%7.46
Fortuna Sittard9%11.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.85
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.48
No32%3.10
Double chance1X (Feyenoord or draw)91%1.10
12 (either side)87%1.15
X2 (draw or Fortuna Sittard)22%4.47
Handicap -1Feyenoord win by 2+44%2.28
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard recent form

Feyenoord 4W 1D 1L
Fortuna Sittard 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Feyenoord at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.5 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Fortuna Sittard away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Feyenoord at home only, Fortuna Sittard away only.

Injuries & availability

Feyenoord absences

  • B. Nieuwkoop knee injury
  • G. Smal ankle injury
  • J. Bos knee injury
  • J. St. Juste leg injury
  • R. Nelson muscle injury
  • S. van Persie knock
  • T. Beelen broken leg

Fortuna Sittard absences

  • I. Marquez injury
  • R. Bayram knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Feyenoord lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 T. Ernst
  2. 16 Javi López
  3. 35 Mika Màrmol
  4. 4 T. Watanabe
  5. 26 G. Read
  6. 28 O. Targhalline
  7. 34 C. Vanhoutte
  8. 8 G. Zechiël
  9. 10 L. Valente
  10. 19 Nacho Ferri
  11. 23 A. Hadj-Moussa

Bench: Gonçalo Borges, S. Steijn, M. Deijl, T. van den Elshout, T. Kraaijeveld, G. Diarra, T. Wessels, F. Kastenmeier, L. Bossin, J. Schaken

Fortuna Sittard lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 31 M. Branderhorst
  2. 28 Justin Quincy Hubner
  3. 6 S. van Ottele
  4. 3 Rodrigo Guth
  5. 8 J. Dahlhaus
  6. 22 Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
  7. 23 P. Brittijn
  8. 12 Ivo Pinto
  9. 9 A. Descotte
  10. 52 M. Ihattaren
  11. 25 L. Zeefuik

Bench: L. Koopmans, S. Wylin, Iván Márquez, K. Peterson, S. Simons, N. de Groot, D. Sinkgraven, K. Reitmaier, K. van Burgsteden, Moussa Gbemou

Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Feyenoord 7 · draws 3 · Fortuna Sittard 0.

FeyenoordDrawsFortuna Sittard
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Fortuna Sittard1-2FeyenoordEredivisie
2025-09-17Feyenoord2-0Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2025-04-12Fortuna Sittard0-2FeyenoordEredivisie
2024-11-30Feyenoord1-1Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2024-04-14Fortuna Sittard0-1FeyenoordEredivisie
2023-08-13Feyenoord0-0Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2023-02-26Fortuna Sittard2-4FeyenoordEredivisie
2022-10-22Feyenoord1-1Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2022-05-01Fortuna Sittard1-3FeyenoordEredivisie
2021-12-05Feyenoord5-0Fortuna SittardEredivisie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match