Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 11

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

· Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen· Referee Sander van der Eijk

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Heerenveen to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HeerenveenDrawNEC Nijmegen

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHeerenveenDrawNEC Nijmegen
Model62%21%17%
Market45%24%31%
Published49%23%28%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.16.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Heerenveen below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Heerenveen, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.84Now 2.08 +0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Heerenveen1.842.08+0.24
Draw4.053.95-0.10
NEC Nijmegen3.603.02-0.58

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.29Heerenveen
1.16NEC Nijmegen
Total expected goals
3.45
Attack rating (Heerenveen / NEC Nijmegen)
1.09 / 1.01
Defence rating (Heerenveen / NEC Nijmegen)
0.76 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1 6.4% 9.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 2 8.3% 9.7% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 6.4% 7.4% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 6.2% 7.2% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6%

Rows: Heerenveen goals. Columns: NEC Nijmegen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Heerenveen49%2.03
Draw23%4.34
NEC Nijmegen28%3.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.49
Under 2.533%3.02
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.60
No38%2.67
Double chance1X (Heerenveen or draw)72%1.38
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or NEC Nijmegen)51%1.97
Handicap -1Heerenveen win by 2+40%2.47
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen recent form

Heerenveen 4W 1D 1L
NEC Nijmegen 1W 5D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Heerenveen at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

NEC Nijmegen away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Heerenveen at home only, NEC Nijmegen away only.

Injuries & availability

Heerenveen absences

  • L. Smans inactive

NEC Nijmegen absences

  • B. Nuytinck ankle injury
  • D. Geiger inactive
  • D. Tadic calf injury
  • E. Mor groin injury
  • P. Sandler injury
  • Y. Moslih inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Heerenveen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Klaverboer
  2. 19 V. Zagaritis
  3. 3 M. Willemsen
  4. 4 S. Kersten
  5. 45 O. Braude
  6. 8 N. Courtens
  7. 16 M. Linday
  8. 7 M. Rivera
  9. 14 L. Smans
  10. 20 J. Trenskow
  11. 9 D. Vente

Bench: M. Hilgers, D. Proper, R. Meerveld, L. Oyen, M. Egbring, R. Uldriķis, M. Farji, D. Bladi, H. Petrov, L. Machine, T. Schreuder, A. Noppert

NEC Nijmegen lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Crettaz
  2. 24 Deveron Fonville
  3. 22 A. Kaplan
  4. 4 P. Schuurs
  5. 99 Clement Bischoff
  6. 35 Jamiro Monteiro
  7. 6 D. Nejašmić
  8. 21 T. Storm
  9. 20 N. Lebreton
  10. 9 T. Chery
  11. 30 B. Linssen

Bench: I. Hansen-Aarøen, W. Willumsson, N. Polster, K. Sierhuis, Adam Tahaui, Kevin Kers, Freek Entius, Y. Moslih, Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar, Gabriel Brás, A. Thomas

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Heerenveen 3 · draws 4 · NEC Nijmegen 3.

HeerenveenDrawsNEC Nijmegen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22NEC Nijmegen2-2HeerenveenEredivisie
2025-09-21Heerenveen3-2NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2025-04-27Heerenveen1-0NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2024-10-19NEC Nijmegen3-0HeerenveenEredivisie
2024-03-10NEC Nijmegen2-0HeerenveenEredivisie
2023-10-07Heerenveen1-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2023-05-06NEC Nijmegen2-3HeerenveenEredivisie
2022-09-04Heerenveen0-0NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2022-02-13Heerenveen0-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2021-11-06NEC Nijmegen1-1HeerenveenEredivisie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match