Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 11

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

· Philips Stadion, Eindhoven· Referee Danny Makkelie

Full time7 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was PSV Eindhoven to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PSV EindhovenDrawWillem II

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePSV EindhovenDrawWillem II
Model81%12%7%
Market89%7%4%
Published87%8%5%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.37 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.05Now 1.06 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
PSV Eindhoven1.051.06+0.01
Draw13.0013.00+0.00
Willem II27.0023.00-4.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

PSV Eindhoven and Willem II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.37PSV Eindhoven
1.03Willem II
Total expected goals
4.40
Attack rating (PSV Eindhoven / Willem II)
1.19 / 0.91
Defence rating (PSV Eindhoven / Willem II)
0.74 / 1.58

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1 3.7% 4.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 2 7.0% 7.2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4% 3 7.8% 8.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 15.5% 16.0% 8.3% 2.8% 0.9%

Rows: PSV Eindhoven goals. Columns: Willem II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 82%
Over 3.5 64%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2PSV Eindhoven87%1.15
Draw8%11.92
Willem II5%20.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581%1.23
Under 2.519%5.40
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.60
No37%2.67
Double chance1X (PSV Eindhoven or draw)95%1.05
12 (either side)92%1.09
X2 (draw or Willem II)13%7.54
Handicap -1PSV Eindhoven win by 2+64%1.55
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

PSV Eindhoven and Willem II recent form

PSV Eindhoven 2W 1D 3L
Willem II 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

PSV Eindhoven at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.80
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Willem II away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
3.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven at home only, Willem II away only.

Injuries & availability

PSV Eindhoven absences

  • A. Nagalo injury
  • A. Plea surgery
  • J. Schouten knee injury
  • P. Wanner foot injury
  • R. Pepi injury
  • S. Lammers lacking match fitness

Willem II absences

  • A. Lachkar groin injury
  • J. Hoogma knee injury
  • J. Slory suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

PSV Eindhoven lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 M. Kovář
  2. 3 Yarek Gasiorowski
  3. 4 A. Obispo
  4. 2 L. Geertruida
  5. 8 S. Dest
  6. 17 Mauro Júnior
  7. 24 K. Sano
  8. 7 R. van Bommel
  9. 20 G. Til
  10. 5 I. Perišić
  11. 21 S. Mijnans

Bench: N. Olij, R. Flamingo, R. Pepi, F. Kostić, E. Bajraktarevic, M. Hansen, K. Sildillia, D. Man, N. Fernandez, A. Santos, A. Bouhamdi, S. Cornecion

Willem II lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 26 M. Delanghe
  2. 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
  3. 23 M. Dekker
  4. 83 M. Lemmens
  5. 3 F. Stam
  6. 5 H. ter Avest
  7. 32 V. van Crooij
  8. 18 Anass Zarrouk
  9. 6 C. Twigt
  10. 19 Uriel van Aalst
  11. 9 D. Haen

Bench: A. Ciranni, K. Boogaard, J. Schuurman, A. Culum, A. Et-Taïbi, O. Martin, W. van der Steen, Per van Loon, T. Verheydt, K. de Leeuw, E. Gürbüz, T. Vilhena

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 6 · draws 2 · Willem II 2.

PSV EindhovenDrawsWillem II
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-08PSV Eindhoven1-1Willem IIEredivisie
2024-09-28Willem II0-2PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2022-05-01PSV Eindhoven4-2Willem IIEredivisie
2021-09-25Willem II2-1PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2021-05-09Willem II0-2PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2020-11-08PSV Eindhoven3-0Willem IIEredivisie
2020-08-21Willem II1-1PSV EindhovenFriendlies Clubs
2020-02-08PSV Eindhoven3-0Willem IIEredivisie
2019-11-10Willem II2-1PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2019-04-25Willem II0-3PSV EindhovenEredivisie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match