PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord: model vs market
| Source | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| Market | 47% | 23% | 31% |
| Published | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.87 | 2.00 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 4.12 | 4.15 | +0.03 |
| Feyenoord | 3.37 | 3.05 | -0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.75
- Attack rating (PSV Eindhoven / Feyenoord)
- 1.26 / 1.50
- Defence rating (PSV Eindhoven / Feyenoord)
- 0.76 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: PSV Eindhoven goals. Columns: Feyenoord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Feyenoord | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (PSV Eindhoven or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Feyenoord) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win by 2+ | 25% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord recent form
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
PSV Eindhoven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Feyenoord away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven at home only, Feyenoord away only.
Injuries & availability
PSV Eindhoven absences
-
A. Nagalo
injury
-
A. Plea
surgery
-
J. Schouten
knee injury
-
K. Sildillia
surgery
- P. Wanner foot injury
- R. Pepi injury
- R. van Bommel inactive
-
S. Lammers
lacking match fitness
- S. Mijnans suspended
Feyenoord absences
-
B. Nieuwkoop
knee injury
-
G. Smal
ankle injury
-
J. Bos
knee injury
-
J. Moder
knee injury
-
R. Nelson
muscle injury
- S. van Persie knock
-
T. Beelen
broken leg
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
PSV Eindhoven lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 32 M. Kovář
- 18 F. Kostić
- 4 A. Obispo
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 8 S. Dest
- 24 K. Sano
- 17 Mauro Júnior
- 5 I. Perišić
- 20 G. Til
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
Bench: N. Olij, Yarek Gasiorowski, R. Flamingo, M. Hansen, K. Sildillia, D. Man, N. Fernandez, A. Santos, A. Bouhamdi, S. Cornecion, T. Smolenaars
Feyenoord lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 T. Ernst
- 35 Mika Màrmol
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 26 G. Read
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 10 L. Valente
- 19 Nacho Ferri
- 23 A. Hadj-Moussa
Bench: J. Moder, Gonçalo Borges, S. Steijn, Javi López, M. Deijl, T. van den Elshout, T. Kraaijeveld, G. Diarra, F. Kastenmeier, L. Bossin, J. Schaken
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 7 · draws 2 · Feyenoord 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | PSV Eindhoven | 3-0 | Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-26 | Feyenoord | 2-3 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 2025-05-11 | Feyenoord | 2-3 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 2025-02-05 | PSV Eindhoven | 2-0 | Feyenoord | KNVB Beker |
| 2024-12-22 | PSV Eindhoven | 3-0 | Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 2024-08-04 | PSV Eindhoven | 4-4 | Feyenoord | Super Cup |
| 2024-03-03 | PSV Eindhoven | 2-2 | Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 2024-01-24 | Feyenoord | 1-0 | PSV Eindhoven | KNVB Beker |
| 2023-12-03 | Feyenoord | 1-2 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 2023-08-04 | Feyenoord | 0-1 | PSV Eindhoven | Super Cup |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle 2026-10-24
- Willem II v Cambuur — match page 2026-10-24
- ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior 2026-10-25
- NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax 2026-10-25
- AZ Alkmaar v Twente — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- PSV Eindhoven, previous: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: odds and pick
- PSV Eindhoven, next: PSV Eindhoven – Willem II, 2026-10-31
- Feyenoord, previous: Real Betis – Feyenoord, 2026-10-21
- Feyenoord, next: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard prediction