Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 10

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord

· Philips Stadion, Eindhoven· Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was PSV Eindhoven to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PSV EindhovenDrawFeyenoord

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePSV EindhovenDrawFeyenoord
Model44%23%33%
Market47%23%31%
Published46%23%31%
Edge-1%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord odds movement

Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.87Now 2.00 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
PSV Eindhoven1.872.00+0.13
Draw4.124.15+0.03
Feyenoord3.373.05-0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.02PSV Eindhoven
1.73Feyenoord
Total expected goals
3.75
Attack rating (PSV Eindhoven / Feyenoord)
1.26 / 1.50
Defence rating (PSV Eindhoven / Feyenoord)
0.76 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 2.0% 1.3% 1 3.9% 9.0% 7.1% 4.1% 2.6% 2 4.8% 8.3% 7.2% 4.1% 2.7% 3 3.2% 5.6% 4.8% 2.8% 1.8% 4+ 2.6% 4.5% 3.9% 2.2% 1.4%

Rows: PSV Eindhoven goals. Columns: Feyenoord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2PSV Eindhoven46%2.17
Draw23%4.42
Feyenoord31%3.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.60
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.59
Double chance1X (PSV Eindhoven or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Feyenoord)54%1.86
Handicap -1PSV Eindhoven win by 2+25%3.92
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord recent form

PSV Eindhoven 3W 0D 3L
Feyenoord 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

PSV Eindhoven at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
3.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Feyenoord away

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven at home only, Feyenoord away only.

Injuries & availability

PSV Eindhoven absences

  • A. Nagalo injury
  • A. Plea surgery
  • J. Schouten knee injury
  • K. Sildillia surgery
  • P. Wanner foot injury
  • R. Pepi injury
  • R. van Bommel inactive
  • S. Lammers lacking match fitness
  • S. Mijnans suspended

Feyenoord absences

  • B. Nieuwkoop knee injury
  • G. Smal ankle injury
  • J. Bos knee injury
  • J. Moder knee injury
  • R. Nelson muscle injury
  • S. van Persie knock
  • T. Beelen broken leg

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

PSV Eindhoven lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 M. Kovář
  2. 18 F. Kostić
  3. 4 A. Obispo
  4. 2 L. Geertruida
  5. 8 S. Dest
  6. 24 K. Sano
  7. 17 Mauro Júnior
  8. 5 I. Perišić
  9. 20 G. Til
  10. 7 R. van Bommel
  11. 19 E. Bajraktarevic

Bench: N. Olij, Yarek Gasiorowski, R. Flamingo, M. Hansen, K. Sildillia, D. Man, N. Fernandez, A. Santos, A. Bouhamdi, S. Cornecion, T. Smolenaars

Feyenoord lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 T. Ernst
  2. 35 Mika Màrmol
  3. 4 T. Watanabe
  4. 6 J. St. Juste
  5. 26 G. Read
  6. 28 O. Targhalline
  7. 34 C. Vanhoutte
  8. 8 G. Zechiël
  9. 10 L. Valente
  10. 19 Nacho Ferri
  11. 23 A. Hadj-Moussa

Bench: J. Moder, Gonçalo Borges, S. Steijn, Javi López, M. Deijl, T. van den Elshout, T. Kraaijeveld, G. Diarra, F. Kastenmeier, L. Bossin, J. Schaken

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 7 · draws 2 · Feyenoord 1.

PSV EindhovenDrawsFeyenoord
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-01PSV Eindhoven3-0FeyenoordEredivisie
2025-10-26Feyenoord2-3PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2025-05-11Feyenoord2-3PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2025-02-05PSV Eindhoven2-0FeyenoordKNVB Beker
2024-12-22PSV Eindhoven3-0FeyenoordEredivisie
2024-08-04PSV Eindhoven4-4FeyenoordSuper Cup
2024-03-03PSV Eindhoven2-2FeyenoordEredivisie
2024-01-24Feyenoord1-0PSV EindhovenKNVB Beker
2023-12-03Feyenoord1-2PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2023-08-04Feyenoord0-1PSV EindhovenSuper Cup

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match