Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 11

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar

· Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam· Referee Allard Lindhout

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Ajax to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AjaxDrawAZ Alkmaar

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAjaxDrawAZ Alkmaar
Model53%22%25%
Market55%22%24%
Published54%22%24%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.42.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.85Now 1.73 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ajax1.851.73-0.12
Draw4.054.35+0.30
AZ Alkmaar3.513.98+0.47

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ajax and AZ Alkmaar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.16Ajax
1.42AZ Alkmaar
Total expected goals
3.58
Attack rating (Ajax / AZ Alkmaar)
1.50 / 1.08
Defence rating (Ajax / AZ Alkmaar)
0.87 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 3.1% 2.8% 1.3% 0.7% 1 5.1% 9.4% 6.1% 2.9% 1.4% 2 6.5% 9.2% 6.6% 3.1% 1.5% 3 4.7% 6.6% 4.7% 2.2% 1.1% 4+ 4.1% 5.9% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0%

Rows: Ajax goals. Columns: AZ Alkmaar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ajax54%1.85
Draw22%4.57
AZ Alkmaar24%4.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.44
Under 2.531%3.26
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.13
Double chance1X (Ajax or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or AZ Alkmaar)46%2.18
Handicap -1Ajax win by 2+33%3.04
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ajax and AZ Alkmaar recent form

Ajax 3W 2D 1L
AZ Alkmaar 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ajax at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-1
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • They average 3.6 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AZ Alkmaar away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ajax at home only, AZ Alkmaar away only.

Injuries & availability

Ajax absences

  • A. Gaaei injury
  • Caio Henrique thigh injury
  • K. Dolberg knee injury
  • O. Edvardsen inactive
  • S. Adingra lacking match fitness
  • S. Berghuis injury

AZ Alkmaar absences

  • A. Oufkir yellow cards
  • J. Hornkamp injury
  • J. Zoet inactive
  • K. Smit injury
  • S. Resink knee injury
  • W. Goes inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Ajax lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 M. ter Stegen
  2. 5 O. Wijndal
  3. 15 Y. Baas
  4. 30 A. Bouwman
  5. 2 Lucas Rosa
  6. 8 J. Brandt
  7. 4 S. Amrabat
  8. 24 J. Mokio
  9. 68 A. Ouazane
  10. 99 T. Arokodare
  11. 18 D. Klaassen

Bench: T. Kehrer, O. Gloukh, D. Blind, Jofre Torrents, S. Berghuis, M. Paes, Y. Bissouma, D. Janse, Marcos Leonardo, Rayane Bounida, D. Pugno, Mohamed Abdalla

AZ Alkmaar lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 J. De Busser
  2. 34 M. de Wit
  3. 4 L. Schouten
  4. 3 W. Goes
  5. 22 E. Dijkstra
  6. 6 P. Koopmeiners
  7. 21 D. Kwakman
  8. 11 R. Daal
  9. 17 V. Byskov
  10. 7 Weslley Patati
  11. 9 M. Meerdink

Bench: R. Owusu-Oduro, S. Maikuma, M. Chávez, J. Clasie, C. Stengs, B. Kovacs, A. Natali, W. Hoedt, D. Kasius, H. de Wit

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ajax 0 · draws 3 · AZ Alkmaar 7.

AjaxDrawsAZ Alkmaar
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-08AZ Alkmaar1-1AjaxEredivisie
2026-01-14AZ Alkmaar6-0AjaxKNVB Beker
2025-10-18Ajax0-2AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2025-03-16Ajax2-2AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2025-01-14AZ Alkmaar2-0AjaxKNVB Beker
2024-12-08AZ Alkmaar2-1AjaxEredivisie
2024-02-25AZ Alkmaar2-0AjaxEredivisie
2023-10-08Ajax1-2AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2023-05-06Ajax0-0AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2022-09-18AZ Alkmaar2-1AjaxEredivisie

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match