Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 10

Willem II vs Cambuur

· Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg· Referee Dennis Higler

Full time1 – 6

TipsterGrid prediction was Cambuur to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Willem IIDrawCambuur

Willem II vs Cambuur: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWillem IIDrawCambuur
Model31%24%44%
Market38%25%37%
Published36%25%39%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.54.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Willem II vs Cambuur odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cambuur, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.63Now 2.57 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Willem II2.392.50+0.11
Draw3.613.74+0.13
Cambuur2.632.57-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Willem II and Cambuur expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Willem II
1.85Cambuur
Total expected goals
3.38
Attack rating (Willem II / Cambuur)
0.75 / 0.93
Defence rating (Willem II / Cambuur)
1.31 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Willem II vs Cambuur score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 5.3% 5.8% 3.6% 2.5% 1 4.2% 10.6% 8.9% 5.5% 3.8% 2 4.0% 7.4% 6.8% 4.2% 3.0% 3 2.1% 3.8% 3.5% 2.2% 1.5% 4+ 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8%

Rows: Willem II goals. Columns: Cambuur goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Willem II vs Cambuur goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Willem II vs Cambuur

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Willem II36%2.76
Draw25%3.99
Cambuur39%2.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.91
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.49
No33%3.04
Double chance1X (Willem II or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Cambuur)64%1.57
Handicap -1Cambuur win by 2+25%4.05
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Willem II and Cambuur recent form

Willem II 0W 1D 5L
Cambuur 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Willem II at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Cambuur away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Willem II at home only, Cambuur away only.

Injuries & availability

Willem II absences

  • A. Culum foot injury
  • A. Lachkar groin injury
  • J. Hoogma knee injury
  • T. Didillon Hodl hamstring injury
  • W. van der Steen inactive

Cambuur absences

  • D. Bouah suspended
  • D. Visser knee injury
  • J. Amofa injury
  • W. Asselman injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Willem II lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Didillon
  2. 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
  3. 23 M. Dekker
  4. 3 F. Stam
  5. 5 H. ter Avest
  6. 52 T. Vilhena
  7. 6 C. Twigt
  8. 32 V. van Crooij
  9. 19 Uriel van Aalst
  10. 7 J. Slory
  11. 9 D. Haen

Bench: A. Ciranni, K. Boogaard, J. Schuurman, A. Culum, A. Et-Taïbi, O. Martin, Anass Zarrouk, M. Delanghe, T. Verheydt, K. de Leeuw, E. Gürbüz, M. Lemmens

Cambuur lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Jansen
  2. 28 M. Costarelli
  3. 14 B. van Duijl
  4. 4 I. Baouf
  5. 16 R. Mulders
  6. 8 N. Souren
  7. 33 M. Maertens
  8. 11 I. Hamache
  9. 10 R. El Arguioui
  10. 30 J. Çeka
  11. 13 N. Binder

Bench: J. Berkhout, S. Bouhoudane, S. Vink, F. Kvam, Ethan Apkakou, Wiebe van der Heide, L. Plogmann, L. Jetten, M. Kalisvaart, W. Kooistra, Iwan Henstra, B. Vogelzang

Willem II vs Cambuur head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Willem II 2 · draws 4 · Cambuur 3.

Willem IIDrawsCambuur
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-12Willem II0-1CambuurEerste Divisie
2025-09-06Cambuur2-2Willem IIEerste Divisie
2024-02-02Willem II1-1CambuurEerste Divisie
2023-09-17Cambuur1-0Willem IIEerste Divisie
2022-05-11Cambuur1-1Willem IIEredivisie
2021-12-10Willem II1-3CambuurEredivisie
2016-04-21Cambuur1-1Willem IIEredivisie
2015-12-06Willem II3-0CambuurEredivisie
2015-05-17Cambuur1-2Willem IIEredivisie

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match