Alverca vs Casa Pia preview
In the upcoming fixture, Alverca holds a 47% probability of winning against Casa Pia, who sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 15% chance of occurring. Alverca's expected goals stand at 1.28, significantly higher than Casa Pia's 0.79, indicating a potential advantage in offensive performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Alverca's last six matches show a mixed record of L-L-W-W-W-L, while Casa Pia has a similar trend with L-W-W-L-W-L. This inconsistency in form may lead to unexpected results, despite the statistical edge for Alverca. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the teams' performances.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: model vs market
| Source | Alverca | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 33% | 23% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 20% |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.77.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Alverca vs Casa Pia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alverca, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.70 | 1.73 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.70 | -0.05 |
| Casa Pia | 4.75 | 4.72 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alverca and Casa Pia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.96
- Attack rating (Alverca / Casa Pia)
- 0.84 / 0.65
- Defence rating (Alverca / Casa Pia)
- 0.97 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alverca vs Casa Pia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alverca goals. Columns: Casa Pia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alverca vs Casa Pia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alverca vs Casa Pia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Casa Pia | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.58 |
| No | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alverca or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Casa Pia) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alverca win by 2+ | 20% | 4.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alverca and Casa Pia recent form
Alverca
3W 0D 3L
Casa Pia
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alverca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Casa Pia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alverca at home only, Casa Pia away only.
Alverca vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alverca 2 · draws 0 · Casa Pia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Alverca | 3-1 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-29 | Casa Pia | 0-2 | Alverca | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Famalicao vs Arouca — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Nacional vs Academico Viseu 2026-11-07
- Sporting CP vs Moreirense 2026-11-07
- Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Estoril v Maritimo — match page 2026-11-08
- Vitória SC vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Rio Ave v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-08
- Estrela v Benfica — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Alverca, previous: Benfica v Alverca analysis
- Casa Pia, previous: Casa Pia v Sporting CP analysis