Estrela vs Benfica preview
In the upcoming match between Estrela and Benfica, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Benfica at 75%, compared to Estrela's 9%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Benfica's expected goals stand at 2.62, significantly higher than Estrela's 0.96, suggesting a clear disparity in offensive capability.
However, Estrela's recent form shows a mix of results with 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Benfica has won 4 of their last 5. This inconsistency for Estrela could lead to a tighter match than the numbers suggest. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Estrela vs Benfica: model vs market
| Source | Estrela | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| Market | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| Published | 10% | 16% | 75% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.27, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Estrela vs Benfica odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 12.80 | 10.18 | -2.62 |
| Draw | 7.48 | 6.00 | -1.48 |
| Benfica | 1.22 | 1.23 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estrela and Benfica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Estrela / Benfica)
- 0.99 / 1.72
- Defence rating (Estrela / Benfica)
- 1.25 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estrela vs Benfica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estrela goals. Columns: Benfica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estrela vs Benfica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estrela vs Benfica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 10% | 10.49 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.29 | |
| Benfica | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estrela or draw) | 25% | 3.93 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Benfica) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win by 2+ | 52% | 1.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Estrela and Benfica recent form
Estrela
1W 1D 4L
Benfica
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estrela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benfica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estrela at home only, Benfica away only.
Estrela vs Benfica head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Estrela 0 · draws 0 · Benfica 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Benfica | 4-0 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-16 | Estrela | 0-1 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente — team news & stats 2026-11-08
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Before and after this match
- Estrela, previous: Moreirense – Estrela, 2026-10-31
- Benfica, previous: Benfica vs Lech Poznan: odds and pick