Estoril vs Maritimo preview
In the upcoming match between Estoril and Maritimo, the probabilities show Estoril at 43% to win, while Maritimo sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Estoril, with a 9% chance according to our model. This prediction could be challenged by the expected goals, which indicate Maritimo at 1.30 compared to Estoril's 1.23, suggesting a tighter contest than the probabilities imply.
Recent form also plays a role, as Estoril has lost their last 6 matches, while Maritimo has managed to secure a win in one of their last 6. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 53%, which could influence the match dynamics. With a confidence grade of C, there is some uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
Estoril vs Maritimo: model vs market
| Source | Estoril | Draw | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Estoril vs Maritimo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estoril, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 2.09 | 2.05 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.51 | 3.42 | -0.09 |
| Maritimo | 3.50 | 3.42 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estoril and Maritimo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Estoril / Maritimo)
- 0.59 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Estoril / Maritimo)
- 1.35 / 1.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estoril vs Maritimo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estoril goals. Columns: Maritimo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estoril vs Maritimo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estoril vs Maritimo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estoril | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Maritimo | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estoril or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Maritimo) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estoril win by 2+ | 15% | 6.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Estoril and Maritimo recent form
Estoril
0W 1D 5L
Maritimo
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estoril at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Maritimo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estoril at home only, Maritimo away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Famalicao vs Arouca — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Nacional vs Academico Viseu 2026-11-07
- Alverca vs Casa Pia 2026-11-07
- Sporting CP vs Moreirense 2026-11-07
- Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Vitória SC vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Rio Ave v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-08
- Estrela v Benfica — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Estoril, previous: FC Porto vs Estoril: odds and pick
- Maritimo, previous: Maritimo vs Santa Clara prediction