Famalicao vs Arouca preview
Famalicao faces Arouca with a 43% chance of winning compared to Arouca's 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring 8% of the time. Famalicao's expected goals stand at 1.14, while Arouca's are higher at 1.43. This suggests Arouca may create more scoring opportunities.
However, Famalicao has a slight edge in their recent head-to-head, with 1 win and 1 draw in the last 2 encounters. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with 1 win from 5 matches, while Arouca has been more consistent, winning 3 of their last 5. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Famalicao vs Arouca: model vs market
| Source | Famalicao | Draw | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Famalicao vs Arouca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Famalicao, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 1.99 | 2.04 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Arouca | 3.75 | 3.50 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Famalicao and Arouca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Famalicao / Arouca)
- 0.98 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Famalicao / Arouca)
- 0.99 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Famalicao vs Arouca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Famalicao goals. Columns: Arouca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Famalicao vs Arouca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Famalicao vs Arouca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Famalicao | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Arouca | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Famalicao or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Arouca) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Famalicao win by 2+ | 12% | 8.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Famalicao and Arouca recent form
Famalicao
2W 1D 3L
Arouca
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Famalicao at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arouca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Famalicao at home only, Arouca away only.
Famalicao vs Arouca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Famalicao 3 · draws 4 · Arouca 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Famalicao | 0-0 | Arouca | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-03-06 | Famalicao | 1-0 | Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-10-05 | Arouca | 1-1 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-04-05 | Arouca | 1-2 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-11-09 | Famalicao | 0-0 | Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-02-23 | Arouca | 3-2 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-09-22 | Famalicao | 1-0 | Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-04-03 | Famalicao | 0-1 | Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-10-10 | Arouca | 4-1 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-01-31 | Famalicao | 0-0 | Arouca | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Estoril v Maritimo — match page 2026-11-08
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- Rio Ave v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-08
- Estrela v Benfica — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Famalicao, previous: SC Braga v Famalicao analysis
- Arouca, previous: Arouca vs Nacional prediction