Rio Ave vs SC Braga preview
In the fixture between Rio Ave and SC Braga, the probabilities show SC Braga at 58% to win compared to Rio Ave's 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 12%. This suggests a tight match, but the primary concern is Rio Ave's recent form, which includes 2 losses in their last 3 matches.
SC Braga's expected goals stand at 1.54, while Rio Ave's is significantly lower at 0.88. This indicates a disparity in attacking potential. However, SC Braga's recent form shows 4 losses in their last 6 games, which could impact their performance. The draw probability is 24%, reflecting the possibility of a more competitive match than the numbers suggest.
Rio Ave vs SC Braga: model vs market
| Source | Rio Ave | Draw | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 28% | 52% |
| Market | 16% | 22% | 61% |
| Published | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.88.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Rio Ave vs SC Braga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SC Braga, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 5.80 | 5.84 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.20 | +0.10 |
| SC Braga | 1.57 | 1.53 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rio Ave and SC Braga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Rio Ave / SC Braga)
- 0.76 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Rio Ave / SC Braga)
- 1.42 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rio Ave vs SC Braga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rio Ave goals. Columns: SC Braga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rio Ave vs SC Braga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rio Ave vs SC Braga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rio Ave | 17% | 5.83 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| SC Braga | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rio Ave or draw) | 41% | 2.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Braga) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win by 2+ | 27% | 3.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rio Ave and SC Braga recent form
Rio Ave
2W 1D 3L
SC Braga
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rio Ave at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SC Braga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rio Ave at home only, SC Braga away only.
Rio Ave vs SC Braga head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Rio Ave 0 · draws 1 · SC Braga 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | SC Braga | 3-0 | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-31 | Rio Ave | 2-2 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Famalicao vs Arouca — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Nacional vs Academico Viseu 2026-11-07
- Alverca vs Casa Pia 2026-11-07
- Sporting CP vs Moreirense 2026-11-07
- Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Estoril v Maritimo — match page 2026-11-08
- Vitória SC vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Estrela v Benfica — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Rio Ave, previous: Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave: odds and pick
- SC Braga, previous: Aarhus vs SC Braga: odds and pick