Nacional vs Academico Viseu preview
In the upcoming fixture between Nacional and Academico Viseu, the 1X2 probabilities show Academico Viseu at 49%, significantly higher than Nacional's 22%. The expected goals further support this, with Nacional at 0.86 and Academico Viseu at 1.42. This indicates a strong likelihood for Academico Viseu to secure a win, with the most likely scoreline projected at 0-1.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Both teams have contrasting recent forms; Nacional has lost 5 of their last 6 matches, while Academico Viseu has won 5 in a row. This disparity in form could influence the match dynamics, making it a potential area for unpredictability.
Nacional vs Academico Viseu: model vs market
| Source | Nacional | Draw | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 29% | 29% | 43% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Academico Viseu below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nacional vs Academico Viseu odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Academico Viseu, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 2.95 | 2.97 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.33 | -0.02 |
| Academico Viseu | 2.40 | 2.35 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nacional and Academico Viseu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Nacional / Academico Viseu)
- 0.72 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Nacional / Academico Viseu)
- 1.18 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nacional vs Academico Viseu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nacional goals. Columns: Academico Viseu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nacional vs Academico Viseu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nacional vs Academico Viseu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 29% | 3.47 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Academico Viseu | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nacional or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Academico Viseu) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Academico Viseu win by 2+ | 25% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nacional and Academico Viseu recent form
Nacional
1W 0D 5L
Academico Viseu
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Academico Viseu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nacional at home only, Academico Viseu away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Famalicao vs Arouca — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Alverca vs Casa Pia 2026-11-07
- Sporting CP vs Moreirense 2026-11-07
- Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Estoril v Maritimo — match page 2026-11-08
- Vitória SC vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Rio Ave v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-08
- Estrela v Benfica — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Nacional, previous: Arouca vs Nacional prediction
- Academico Viseu, previous: Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave: odds and pick