Başakşehir vs Samsunspor: model vs market
| Source | Başakşehir | Draw | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Başakşehir, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 1.87 | 1.79 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.88 | +0.02 |
| Samsunspor | 3.90 | 4.04 | +0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Başakşehir and Samsunspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Başakşehir / Samsunspor)
- 1.00 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Başakşehir / Samsunspor)
- 1.06 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Başakşehir goals. Columns: Samsunspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Samsunspor | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Başakşehir or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Samsunspor) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Başakşehir win by 2+ | 38% | 2.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Başakşehir and Samsunspor recent form
Başakşehir
2W 1D 3L
Samsunspor
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Başakşehir at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Samsunspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Başakşehir at home only, Samsunspor away only.
Injuries & availability
Başakşehir absences
- C. Operi inactive
- J. Opoku inactive
Samsunspor absences
-
A. Sousa
suspended
- C. Yuksel injury
- E. Kilinc inactive
-
F. Kaya
inactive
-
I. Drapinski
injury
- J. Mendes injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Başakşehir 7 · draws 1 · Samsunspor 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Başakşehir | 3-0 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-12-14 | Samsunspor | 0-2 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2025-02-01 | Başakşehir | 4-0 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 2024-09-18 | Samsunspor | 2-0 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2024-03-03 | Başakşehir | 1-0 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 2023-10-22 | Samsunspor | 0-0 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2014-01-11 | Başakşehir | 1-3 | Samsunspor | 1. Lig |
| 2013-08-17 | Samsunspor | 0-1 | Başakşehir | 1. Lig |
| 2012-01-29 | Samsunspor | 2-4 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2011-10-16 | Başakşehir | 3-0 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Konyaspor vs Galatasaray — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-31
- Kocaelispor vs Rizespor 2026-10-31
- Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe 2026-10-31
- Amed vs Eyüpspor — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş 2026-11-01
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Başakşehir, previous: Beşiktaş v Başakşehir analysis
- Başakşehir, next: Göztepe v Başakşehir analysis
- Samsunspor, previous: Samsunspor v Amed analysis
- Samsunspor, next: Samsunspor vs Konyaspor: odds and pick