Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 10

Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe

· Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul· Referee O. Cakir

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Fenerbahçe to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FenerbahçeDrawGöztepe

Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFenerbahçeDrawGöztepe
Model50%22%29%
Market69%18%12%
Published65%19%16%
Edge-5%+1%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.72.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fenerbahçe, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 1.38Now 1.34 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fenerbahçe1.381.34-0.04
Draw5.055.08+0.03
Göztepe7.307.65+0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fenerbahçe and Göztepe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.26Fenerbahçe
1.72Göztepe
Total expected goals
3.99
Attack rating (Fenerbahçe / Göztepe)
1.39 / 1.36
Defence rating (Fenerbahçe / Göztepe)
1.04 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 1 3.5% 8.0% 6.2% 3.6% 2.3% 2 4.8% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 2.6% 3 3.6% 6.2% 5.3% 3.1% 1.9% 4+ 3.5% 5.9% 5.1% 2.9% 1.9%

Rows: Fenerbahçe goals. Columns: Göztepe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fenerbahçe65%1.55
Draw19%5.22
Göztepe16%6.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.16
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.35
No26%3.89
Double chance1X (Fenerbahçe or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Göztepe)35%2.82
Handicap -1Fenerbahçe win by 2+30%3.28
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fenerbahçe and Göztepe recent form

Fenerbahçe 3W 1D 2L
Göztepe 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fenerbahçe at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Göztepe away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.60
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Fenerbahçe at home only, Göztepe away only.

Injuries & availability

Fenerbahçe absences

  • A. Brown suspended
  • J. Oosterwolde achilles tendon injury
  • M. Asensio knee injury
  • N. Ake muscle injury

Göztepe absences

  • Allan Godoi injury
  • F. Bayir inactive
  • I. Sabra ankle injury
  • L. Gugeshashvili inactive
  • O. Bayrak inactive
  • Rhaldney injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Fenerbahçe lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Ederson
  2. 22 Levent Mercan
  3. 21 Kojo Peprah Oppong
  4. 37 Milan Škriniar
  5. 27 Nélson Semedo
  6. 6 Mattéo Guendouzi
  7. 91 N'Golo Kanté
  8. 7 Kerem Aktürkoğlu
  9. 70 Oğuz Aydın
  10. 17 İrfan Can Kahveci
  11. 9 Romelu Lukaku

Bench: İsmail Yüksek, Mert Hakan Yandaş, Tarık Çetin, Yiğit Efe Demir, Mert Müldür, Vedat Muriqi, Bartuğ Elmaz, Mert Günok, Dorgeles Nene, Ognjen Mimović

Göztepe lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 Arda Özçimen
  2. 26 Malcom Bokele
  3. 19 Noah Sonko Sundberg
  4. 4 Taha Altıkardeş
  5. 12 Richard Akonnor
  6. 20 Novatus Miroshi
  7. 5 Rhaldney
  8. 2 Arda Kurtulan
  9. 8 Alexis Antunes
  10. 9 Juan Santos da Silva
  11. 39 Janderson

Bench: Allan, Alex Matos, André Henrique, Efkan Bekiroğlu, Ege Yildirim, Bekir Turaç Böke, Gökdeniz Bayrakdar, Tino Anjorin, Sinclair Armstrong, Mehmet Şamil Öztürk

Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fenerbahçe 4 · draws 5 · Göztepe 1.

FenerbahçeDrawsGöztepe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-25Fenerbahçe1-1GöztepeSüper Lig
2025-08-16Göztepe0-0FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2025-01-26Fenerbahçe3-2GöztepeSüper Lig
2024-08-17Göztepe2-2FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2022-04-16Fenerbahçe2-0GöztepeSüper Lig
2021-11-29Göztepe1-1FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2021-02-21Fenerbahçe0-1GöztepeSüper Lig
2020-10-18Göztepe2-3FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2020-07-04Fenerbahçe2-1GöztepeSüper Lig
2019-11-30Göztepe2-2FenerbahçeSüper Lig

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match