Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 9

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe

· Rams Park, Istanbul· Referee A. Karaoglan

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Galatasaray to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GalatasarayDrawFenerbahçe

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGalatasarayDrawFenerbahçe
Model34%21%45%
Market48%24%28%
Published45%23%32%
Edge-3%-1%+4%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Galatasaray, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.31Now 1.95 -0.36
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Galatasaray2.311.95-0.36
Draw3.723.87+0.15
Fenerbahçe3.043.38+0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.98Galatasaray
2.27Fenerbahçe
Total expected goals
4.25
Attack rating (Galatasaray / Fenerbahçe)
1.37 / 1.47
Defence rating (Galatasaray / Fenerbahçe)
1.27 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 2.6% 3.7% 2.8% 2.7% 1 2.2% 7.0% 7.3% 5.5% 5.3% 2 2.8% 6.4% 7.2% 5.4% 5.3% 3 1.8% 4.2% 4.8% 3.6% 3.5% 4+ 1.4% 3.3% 3.7% 2.8% 2.7%

Rows: Galatasaray goals. Columns: Fenerbahçe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 61%
Both teams to score
78%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Galatasaray45%2.24
Draw23%4.27
Fenerbahçe32%3.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%4.94
Both teams to scoreYes78%1.28
No22%4.55
Double chance1X (Galatasaray or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)77%1.31
X2 (draw or Fenerbahçe)55%1.80
Handicap -1Galatasaray win by 2+19%5.40
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe recent form

Galatasaray 4W 0D 2L
Fenerbahçe 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Galatasaray at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fenerbahçe away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Galatasaray at home only, Fenerbahçe away only.

Injuries & availability

Galatasaray absences

  • R. Leao injury

Fenerbahçe absences

  • J. Oosterwolde achilles tendon injury
  • M. Asensio knee injury
  • M. Muldur knee injury
  • N. Ake muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Galatasaray lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Uğurcan Çakır
  2. 4 Ismail Jakobs
  3. 42 Abdülkerim Bardakcı
  4. 6 Davinson Sánchez
  5. 7 Roland Sallai
  6. 99 Mario Lemina
  7. 34 Lucas Torreira
  8. 53 Barış Alper Yılmaz
  9. 83 Aleksey Batrakov
  10. 11 Yunus Akgün
  11. 45 Victor Osimhen

Bench: Gabriel Sara, Leroy Sané, Eren Elmalı, Lesley Ugochukwu, İlkay Gündoğan, Deniz Gül, Jankat Yılmaz, Rafael Leão, Renato Nhaga, Wilfried Singo

Fenerbahçe lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Ederson
  2. 22 Levent Mercan
  3. 3 Archie Brown
  4. 37 Milan Škriniar
  5. 27 Nélson Semedo
  6. 91 N'Golo Kanté
  7. 6 Mattéo Guendouzi
  8. 70 Oğuz Aydın
  9. 17 İrfan Can Kahveci
  10. 11 Mason Greenwood
  11. 9 Romelu Lukaku

Bench: İsmail Yüksek, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Mert Hakan Yandaş, Yiğit Efe Demir, Mert Müldür, Vedat Muriqi, Kojo Peprah Oppong, Bartuğ Elmaz, Mert Günok, Dorgeles Nene

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Galatasaray 5 · draws 3 · Fenerbahçe 2.

GalatasarayDrawsFenerbahçe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Galatasaray3-0FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2026-01-10Galatasaray0-2FenerbahçeSuper Cup
2025-12-01Fenerbahçe1-1GalatasaraySüper Lig
2025-04-02Fenerbahçe1-2GalatasarayTürkiye Kupası
2025-02-24Galatasaray0-0FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2024-09-21Fenerbahçe1-3GalatasaraySüper Lig
2024-05-19Galatasaray0-1FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2024-04-07Galatasaray1-0FenerbahçeSuper Cup
2023-12-24Fenerbahçe0-0GalatasaraySüper Lig
2023-06-04Galatasaray3-0FenerbahçeSüper Lig

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match