Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Ajax vs Atalanta

· Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam· Referee A. Nobre

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Ajax to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AjaxDrawAtalanta

Ajax vs Atalanta: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAjaxDrawAtalanta
Model78%12%10%
Market46%25%29%
Published54%22%24%
Edge+8%-3%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.56 vs 1.36.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ajax below our published probability: +8.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ajax vs Atalanta odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.88Now 2.06 -0.82
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ajax2.882.06-0.82
Draw3.613.77+0.16
Atalanta2.333.20+0.88

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ajax and Atalanta expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.56Ajax
1.36Atalanta
Total expected goals
4.92
Attack rating (Ajax / Atalanta)
1.85 / 1.03
Defence rating (Ajax / Atalanta)
1.10 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ajax vs Atalanta score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1 2.3% 3.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 2 4.6% 6.3% 4.3% 1.9% 0.9% 3 5.5% 7.5% 5.1% 2.3% 1.1% 4+ 12.2% 16.6% 11.3% 5.1% 2.3%

Rows: Ajax goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ajax vs Atalanta goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 96%
Over 2.5 87%
Over 3.5 72%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ajax vs Atalanta

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ajax54%1.86
Draw22%4.60
Atalanta24%4.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.587%1.15
Under 2.513%7.71
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.38
No28%3.62
Double chance1X (Ajax or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Atalanta)46%2.17
Handicap -1Ajax win by 2+61%1.63
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ajax and Atalanta recent form

Ajax 3W 2D 1L
Atalanta 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ajax at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 2.8 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Atalanta away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Ajax at home only, Atalanta away only.

Expected lineups

Ajax lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Marc-André Ter Stegen
  2. 5 Owen Wijndal
  3. 15 Youri Baas
  4. 30 Aaron Bouwman
  5. 2 Lucas Rosa
  6. 24 Jorthy Mokio
  7. 18 Davy Klaassen
  8. 4 Sofyan Amrabat
  9. 10 Oscar Gloukh
  10. 38 Marcos Leonardo
  11. 8 Julian Brandt

Bench: Thilo Kehrer, Viktor Tsygankov, Jofre Torrents, Joeri Heerkens, Maarten Paes, Dies Janse, Rayane Bounida, Diego Pugno, Mohamed Abdalla, Abdellah Ouazane, Tolu Arokodare

Atalanta lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 29 Marco Carnesecchi
  2. 77 Davide Zappacosta
  3. 40 Relja Obrić
  4. 31 Thomas Kristensen
  5. 16 Raoul Bellanova
  6. 13 Éderson
  7. 70 Gianluca Gaetano
  8. 59 Nicola Zalewski
  9. 17 Charles De Ketelaere
  10. 99 Eljif Elmas
  11. 9 Gianluca Scamacca

Bench: Mario Pašalić, Lazar Samardžić, Jonathan Rowe, Javison Idele, Sergej Levak, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Andrea Bonanomi, Mattia Sonzogni, Isaac Isoa, Marco Sportiello, Nikola Krstović

Ajax vs Atalanta head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Ajax 0 · draws 1 · Atalanta 1.

AjaxDrawsAtalanta
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-12-09Ajax0-1AtalantaUEFA Champions League
2020-10-27Atalanta2-2AjaxUEFA Champions League

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match