Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 10

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax

· Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam· Referee Danny Makkelie

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Ajax to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 3

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sparta RotterdamDrawAjax

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSparta RotterdamDrawAjax
Model14%15%71%
Market15%19%66%
Published15%18%67%
Edge0%-1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.37 vs 1.59.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 1.39Now 1.44 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sparta Rotterdam6.506.20-0.30
Draw5.085.00-0.08
Ajax1.391.44+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.59Sparta Rotterdam
3.37Ajax
Total expected goals
4.96
Attack rating (Sparta Rotterdam / Ajax)
0.99 / 1.55
Defence rating (Sparta Rotterdam / Ajax)
1.43 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.1% 2.0% 4.0% 4.5% 8.8% 1 0.7% 4.1% 6.3% 7.1% 14.1% 2 0.9% 3.0% 5.0% 5.7% 11.2% 3 0.5% 1.6% 2.7% 3.0% 5.9% 4+ 0.3% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 3.4%

Rows: Sparta Rotterdam goals. Columns: Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 96%
Over 2.5 87%
Over 3.5 73%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sparta Rotterdam15%6.65
Draw18%5.60
Ajax67%1.49
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.587%1.15
Under 2.513%7.78
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.29
No23%4.40
Double chance1X (Sparta Rotterdam or draw)33%3.04
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Ajax)85%1.18
Handicap -1Ajax win by 2+54%1.86
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax recent form

Sparta Rotterdam 1W 2D 3L
Ajax 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sparta Rotterdam at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ajax away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam at home only, Ajax away only.

Injuries & availability

Sparta Rotterdam absences

  • S. Mito injury

Ajax absences

  • A. Gaaei injury
  • Caio Henrique thigh injury
  • D. Blind back injury
  • K. Dolberg knee injury
  • O. Edvardsen inactive
  • S. Adingra lacking match fitness
  • S. Berghuis injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sparta Rotterdam lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 M. Brouwer
  2. 5 B. Kuipers
  3. 4 B. Martins Indi
  4. 6 N. Verschuren
  5. 3 M. Young
  6. 2 L. Martes
  7. 11 I. Babadi
  8. 8 J. Toornstra
  9. 10 Cedric Hatenboer
  10. 7 Robin van Cruijsen
  11. 9 M. Zonneveld

Bench: B. Reith, Teo Quintero, G. Vianello, J. Baas, M. van Bergen, A. Roaldsøy, F. Bednarek, C. Terho, Joel Ideho, P. Kuiper

Ajax lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 M. ter Stegen
  2. 15 Y. Baas
  3. 36 D. Janse
  4. 6 T. Kehrer
  5. 2 Lucas Rosa
  6. 24 J. Mokio
  7. 4 S. Amrabat
  8. 8 J. Brandt
  9. 68 A. Ouazane
  10. 99 T. Arokodare
  11. 11 V. Tsygankov

Bench: O. Wijndal, O. Gloukh, D. Blind, D. Klaassen, Jofre Torrents, J. Heerkens, M. Paes, Y. Bissouma, A. Bouwman, Marcos Leonardo, Rayane Bounida, Mohamed Abdalla

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 0 · draws 3 · Ajax 7.

Sparta RotterdamDrawsAjax
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-14Ajax4-0Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2025-10-04Sparta Rotterdam3-3AjaxEredivisie
2025-04-27Ajax1-1Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2024-12-22Sparta Rotterdam0-2AjaxEredivisie
2024-03-17Sparta Rotterdam2-2AjaxEredivisie
2023-12-09Ajax2-1Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2023-02-19Ajax4-0Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2022-08-21Sparta Rotterdam0-1AjaxEredivisie
2022-04-09Ajax2-1Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
2021-11-28Sparta Rotterdam0-1AjaxEredivisie

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match