Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 10

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente

· AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar· Referee Alex Bos

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was AZ Alkmaar to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AZ AlkmaarDrawTwente

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAZ AlkmaarDrawTwente
Model39%27%34%
Market45%25%31%
Published43%25%32%
Edge-1%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 2.23Now 2.11 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AZ Alkmaar2.232.11-0.12
Draw3.763.80+0.04
Twente2.773.05+0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AZ Alkmaar and Twente expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56AZ Alkmaar
1.44Twente
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (AZ Alkmaar / Twente)
1.19 / 1.25
Defence rating (AZ Alkmaar / Twente)
0.76 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 6.1% 5.2% 2.5% 1.2% 1 6.7% 12.3% 8.1% 3.9% 1.9% 2 6.1% 8.7% 6.3% 3.0% 1.5% 3 3.1% 4.5% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 4+ 1.7% 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: AZ Alkmaar goals. Columns: Twente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AZ Alkmaar43%2.31
Draw25%3.97
Twente32%3.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.74
Under 2.542%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (AZ Alkmaar or draw)68%1.46
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Twente)57%1.76
Handicap -1AZ Alkmaar win by 2+20%4.99
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AZ Alkmaar and Twente recent form

AZ Alkmaar 3W 1D 2L
Twente 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AZ Alkmaar at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Twente away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar at home only, Twente away only.

Injuries & availability

AZ Alkmaar absences

  • J. Clasie knock
  • J. Hornkamp injury
  • K. Smit injury
  • S. Resink knee injury

Twente absences

  • F. Thorvaldsen inactive
  • L. Unnerstall inactive
  • M. Bruns inactive
  • S. Lemkin muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

AZ Alkmaar lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 J. De Busser
  2. 5 M. Chávez
  3. 29 W. Hoedt
  4. 4 L. Schouten
  5. 22 E. Dijkstra
  6. 6 P. Koopmeiners
  7. 21 D. Kwakman
  8. 11 R. Daal
  9. 17 V. Byskov
  10. 7 Weslley Patati
  11. 9 M. Meerdink

Bench: R. Owusu-Oduro, S. Maikuma, J. Clasie, C. Stengs, B. Kovacs, A. Oufkir, D. Kasius, R. Ichihara, M. de Wit, H. de Wit

Twente lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 J. Drommel
  2. 29 A. Adelgaard
  3. 4 R. Nijstad
  4. 3 R. Pröpper
  5. 28 B. van Rooij
  6. 8 D. Weidmann
  7. 6 R. Zerrouki
  8. 27 S. Ørjasæter
  9. 10 Y. Taha
  10. 11 D. Rots
  11. 9 W. Weghorst

Bench: M. Rosiak, M. Pjaca, K. Hlynsson, Jordy Bawuah, T. van den Belt, R. Pasveer, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink, Yannick Gerritsen, J. Meilink

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 5 · draws 2 · Twente 3.

AZ AlkmaarDrawsTwente
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03AZ Alkmaar2-2TwenteEredivisie
2026-02-03AZ Alkmaar2-1TwenteKNVB Beker
2025-11-30Twente1-0AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2025-05-25AZ Alkmaar3-2TwenteEredivisie
2025-05-14Twente2-3AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2024-12-21AZ Alkmaar1-0TwenteEredivisie
2024-05-05AZ Alkmaar2-1TwenteEredivisie
2024-01-13Twente2-1AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2023-03-19Twente2-1AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2022-09-11AZ Alkmaar1-1TwenteEredivisie

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match