Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 10

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen

· Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen· Referee Martin Van den Kerkhof

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was NEC Nijmegen to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NEC NijmegenDrawGroningen

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNEC NijmegenDrawGroningen
Model36%21%42%
Market43%24%33%
Published41%24%35%
Edge-2%-1%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on NEC Nijmegen, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.05Now 2.22 +0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
NEC Nijmegen2.052.22+0.17
Draw3.803.90+0.10
Groningen3.112.87-0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

NEC Nijmegen and Groningen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.07NEC Nijmegen
2.22Groningen
Total expected goals
4.29
Attack rating (NEC Nijmegen / Groningen)
0.97 / 1.25
Defence rating (NEC Nijmegen / Groningen)
1.17 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 2.4% 3.4% 2.5% 2.4% 1 2.2% 6.9% 7.0% 5.2% 4.9% 2 2.9% 6.5% 7.2% 5.4% 5.0% 3 2.0% 4.5% 5.0% 3.7% 3.5% 4+ 1.7% 3.7% 4.1% 3.1% 2.9%

Rows: NEC Nijmegen goals. Columns: Groningen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
78%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2NEC Nijmegen41%2.43
Draw24%4.25
Groningen35%2.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%5.02
Both teams to scoreYes78%1.27
No22%4.65
Double chance1X (NEC Nijmegen or draw)65%1.55
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Groningen)59%1.70
Handicap -1NEC Nijmegen win by 2+20%4.91
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

NEC Nijmegen and Groningen recent form

NEC Nijmegen 1W 4D 1L
Groningen 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

NEC Nijmegen at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Groningen away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.

League matches this season before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen at home only, Groningen away only.

Injuries & availability

NEC Nijmegen absences

  • B. Nuytinck ankle injury
  • D. Tadic calf injury
  • E. Mor groin injury
  • P. Sandler injury
  • Y. Moslih inactive

Groningen absences

  • E. van der Laan injury
  • M. Jeng leg injury
  • T. Mercera injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

NEC Nijmegen lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Crettaz
  2. 24 Deveron Fonville
  3. 22 A. Kaplan
  4. 4 P. Schuurs
  5. 99 Clement Bischoff
  6. 35 Jamiro Monteiro
  7. 6 D. Nejašmić
  8. 34 Kevin Kers
  9. 20 N. Lebreton
  10. 9 T. Chery
  11. 30 B. Linssen

Bench: M. Bakker, I. Hansen-Aarøen, W. Willumsson, N. Polster, K. Sierhuis, D. Geiger, Adam Tahaui, T. Storm, Freek Entius, Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar, Gabriel Brás

Groningen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 E. Vaessen
  2. 33 H. Hateboer
  3. 4 M. Csinger
  4. 3 T. Blokzijl
  5. 5 M. Rente
  6. 24 P. Clement
  7. 8 T. de Jonge
  8. 14 J. Schreuders
  9. 26 T. van Bergen
  10. 17 D. van der Werff
  11. 9 B. Willumsson

Bench: Wouter Prins, T. Hernes, J. Ondrejka, M. Brandis, L. Štubljar, A. Nordin, T. Land, O. Zawada, Nils Eggens, P. Boevink, J. Mosselaar, Besnik Mashuku

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 6 · draws 1 · Groningen 3.

NEC NijmegenDrawsGroningen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Groningen2-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2025-11-09NEC Nijmegen2-0GroningenEredivisie
2025-07-19Groningen1-2NEC NijmegenFriendlies Clubs
2025-02-08Groningen2-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2024-11-03NEC Nijmegen6-0GroningenEredivisie
2023-04-25Groningen0-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2022-08-26NEC Nijmegen1-1GroningenEredivisie
2022-03-12Groningen4-3NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2022-01-19Groningen1-2NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker
2021-10-31NEC Nijmegen3-0GroningenEredivisie

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match