Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus

· Orange Vélodrome, Marseille· Referee Michael Oliver

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Marseille to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MarseilleDrawOlympiakos Piraeus

Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMarseilleDrawOlympiakos Piraeus
Model26%26%48%
Market41%27%32%
Published37%27%36%
Edge-4%0%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.12Now 2.33 +0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Marseille2.122.33+0.21
Draw3.603.48-0.13
Olympiakos Piraeus3.173.00-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.22Marseille
1.76Olympiakos Piraeus
Total expected goals
2.98
Attack rating (Marseille / Olympiakos Piraeus)
1.25 / 0.99
Defence rating (Marseille / Olympiakos Piraeus)
1.53 / 0.63

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 7.9% 7.9% 4.6% 3.0% 1 5.1% 12.0% 9.6% 5.6% 3.7% 2 3.8% 6.6% 5.8% 3.4% 2.3% 3 1.5% 2.7% 2.4% 1.4% 0.9% 4+ 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Marseille37%2.69
Draw27%3.70
Olympiakos Piraeus36%2.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.33
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.68
No40%2.47
Double chance1X (Marseille or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Olympiakos Piraeus)63%1.59
Handicap -1Marseille win by 2+11%9.32
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus recent form

Marseille 1W 0D 5L
Olympiakos Piraeus 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Marseille absences

  • D. Cornelius hip injury
  • P. Hojbjerg muscle injury

Olympiakos Piraeus absences

  • A. El Kaabi broken leg
  • B. Popovic off the roster
  • Clayton off the roster
  • J. Roca off the roster
  • L. Scipioni off the roster
  • M. Mouandilmadji off the roster
  • Y. Yazici knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Marseille lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 J. de Lange
  2. 33 Emerson
  3. 21 N. Aguerd
  4. 18 B. Meité
  5. 22 T. Weah
  6. 8 H. Abdelli
  7. 7 A. Gomes
  8. 6 T. Nnadi
  9. 14 Igor Paixão
  10. 11 N. Maupay
  11. 48 K. Abdallah

Bench: C. Egan-Riley, A. Gouiri, G. Kondogbia, U. Garcia, F. Moumbagna, J. Van Neck, T. Mmadi, E. Mbondo, K. Bezahaf, A. Harit, T. Vermot

Olympiakos Piraeus lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Ortega
  2. 70 S. Onyemaechi
  3. 5 L. Pirola
  4. 45 P. Retsos
  5. 2 M. Saliakas
  6. 32 S. Hezze
  7. 15 G. Puerta
  8. 20 Jota Silva
  9. 22 Chiquinho
  10. 10 Gelson Martins
  11. 11 R. Yaremchuk

Bench: Z. Smajlović, David Carmo, K. Fortounis, Gustavo Sá, R. Freuler, M. Pedersen, A. González, N. Tiknizyan, C. Filis, D. Stournaras, I. Georgakopoulos

Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Marseille 2 · draws 0 · Olympiakos Piraeus 2.

MarseilleDrawsOlympiakos Piraeus
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-12-01Marseille2-1Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Champions League
2020-10-21Olympiakos Piraeus1-0MarseilleUEFA Champions League
2011-11-23Marseille0-1Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Champions League
2011-09-13Olympiakos Piraeus0-1MarseilleUEFA Champions League

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match