Updated

England Championship · Matchday 13

Burnley vs Portsmouth

· Turf Moor, Burnley· Referee Ruebyn Ricardo

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Burnley to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BurnleyDrawPortsmouth

Burnley vs Portsmouth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBurnleyDrawPortsmouth
Model30%26%44%
Market41%28%30%
Published38%28%34%
Edge-3%-1%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Burnley vs Portsmouth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Burnley, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.01Now 2.30 +0.29
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Burnley2.012.30+0.29
Draw3.443.33-0.11
Portsmouth3.443.10-0.34

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Burnley and Portsmouth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Burnley
1.68Portsmouth
Total expected goals
3.04
Attack rating (Burnley / Portsmouth)
1.02 / 1.03
Defence rating (Burnley / Portsmouth)
1.34 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Burnley vs Portsmouth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 7.0% 6.8% 3.8% 2.3% 1 5.4% 12.0% 9.2% 5.2% 3.2% 2 4.4% 7.4% 6.2% 3.5% 2.2% 3 2.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 4+ 0.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Portsmouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Burnley vs Portsmouth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Burnley vs Portsmouth

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Burnley38%2.61
Draw28%3.60
Portsmouth34%2.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.42
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.60
Double chance1X (Burnley or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Portsmouth)62%1.62
Handicap -1Burnley win by 2+14%7.32
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Burnley and Portsmouth recent form

Burnley 1W 2D 3L
Portsmouth 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Burnley at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-4-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Portsmouth away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Burnley at home only, Portsmouth away only.

Injuries & availability

Burnley absences

  • A. Ahmedhodzic knock
  • A. Broja injury
  • A. Ramsey hamstring injury
  • B. Amos inactive
  • B. Humphreys muscle injury
  • H. Mejbri hamstring injury
  • J. Banel lacking match fitness
  • J. Beyer hamstring injury
  • J. Bruun Larsen injury
  • J. Cullen lacking match fitness
  • J. Vardy injury
  • K. Walker inactive
  • M. Obafemi inactive
  • M. Tresor Ndayishimiye inactive
  • S. Sambo inactive
  • Z. Amdouni ankle injury

Portsmouth absences

  • B. Arthur back injury
  • C. Bishop knee injury
  • C. Ogilvie knee injury
  • C. Shaughnessy injury
  • J. Murphy groin injury
  • J. Swift knee injury
  • K. Anderson overload
  • L. Brooke-Smith ankle injury
  • M. Kosznovszky knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Burnley lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 37 G. Coudert
  2. 23 Lucas Pires
  3. 44 Igor
  4. 18 H. Ekdal
  5. 2 K. Walker
  6. 5 R. Hatate
  7. 17 A. Hountondji
  8. 19 L. Ramazani
  9. 29 J. Laurent
  10. 10 M. Edwards
  11. 9 J. Vardy

Bench: M. Weiß, Max Alleyne, U. Raghouber, C. Roberts, A. Ahmedhodžić, A. Ramsey, O. Sonne, J. Cullen, J. Banel

Portsmouth lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Schmid
  2. 16 J. Meghoma
  3. 55 M. Dia
  4. 5 R. Poole
  5. 22 Z. Swanson
  6. 37 I. Mohamed
  7. 7 M. Pack
  8. 25 R. Kavuma McQueen
  9. 10 A. Segecic
  10. 11 A. Kamara
  11. 29 M. Milovanović

Bench: C. Shaughnessy, T. Shade, R. Shein, T. Waddingham, J. Murphy, T. Devlin, O. Bailey, D. Bielica, E. Adams

Burnley vs Portsmouth head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Burnley 2 · draws 1 · Portsmouth 1.

BurnleyDrawsPortsmouth
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-01Portsmouth0-0BurnleyChampionship
2024-09-21Burnley2-1PortsmouthChampionship
2012-03-31Portsmouth1-5BurnleyChampionship
2011-12-10Burnley0-1PortsmouthChampionship

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match