Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 10

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle

· Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht· Referee Martijn Vos

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Utrecht to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UtrechtDrawPEC Zwolle

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUtrechtDrawPEC Zwolle
Model61%19%21%
Market58%22%20%
Published58%21%20%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.57.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Utrecht, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.62Now 1.65 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Utrecht1.621.65+0.03
Draw4.104.28+0.18
PEC Zwolle4.754.75+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Utrecht and PEC Zwolle expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.67Utrecht
1.57PEC Zwolle
Total expected goals
4.24
Attack rating (Utrecht / PEC Zwolle)
1.07 / 0.78
Defence rating (Utrecht / PEC Zwolle)
1.34 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 1 3.2% 6.6% 4.7% 2.5% 1.4% 2 5.1% 8.1% 6.3% 3.3% 1.8% 3 4.6% 7.2% 5.6% 2.9% 1.6% 4+ 5.8% 9.2% 7.2% 3.8% 2.1%

Rows: Utrecht goals. Columns: PEC Zwolle goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 61%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Utrecht58%1.71
Draw21%4.67
PEC Zwolle20%4.96
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.26
Under 2.520%4.89
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.35
No26%3.89
Double chance1X (Utrecht or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or PEC Zwolle)42%2.41
Handicap -1Utrecht win by 2+41%2.43
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Utrecht and PEC Zwolle recent form

Utrecht 3W 1D 2L
PEC Zwolle 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Utrecht at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

PEC Zwolle away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Utrecht at home only, PEC Zwolle away only.

Injuries & availability

Utrecht absences

  • A. Engwanda hamstring injury
  • A. Stepanov ankle injury
  • K. Paredes knee injury
  • M. Broholm inactive
  • M. Jonathans knee injury
  • N. Ohio knee injury
  • V. Barkas inactive
  • V. Jensen knee injury

PEC Zwolle absences

  • F. Krastev achilles tendon injury
  • S. Floranus injury
  • Y. Namli knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Utrecht lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 S. Padt
  2. 92 A. Zagré
  3. 5 N. Panagiotou
  4. 3 M. Didden
  5. 2 S. Horemans
  6. 8 J. van Overeem
  7. 38 O. Agougil
  8. 11 Ángel Alarcón
  9. 10 Y. Cathline
  10. 23 N. Vesterlund
  11. 20 D. de Wit

Bench: G. Offerhaus, Artem Stepanov, A. Blake, S. van Duijn, J. Medić, N. Ogidi Nwankwo, M. Eppink, P. Kloosterboer, K. Gadellaa, D. van den Berg, N. Amrabat

PEC Zwolle lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Schendelaar
  2. 33 D. van der Haar
  3. 24 N. Viergever
  4. 28 S. Graves
  5. 3 O. Aertssen
  6. 8 T. Sommer
  7. 30 R. Thomas
  8. 11 D. Mbayo
  9. 25 T. Oosting
  10. 37 Gilles van der Wal
  11. 17 S. van Hooijdonk

Bench: T. Velthuis, Jan Bürger, Y. Namli, E. Sørensen, K. Kostons, T. de Graaff, G. Reiziger, I. Cissoko, Jadiel Pereira da Gama, N. Fichtinger, D. Verduin, Dylan Ruward

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Utrecht 4 · draws 5 · PEC Zwolle 1.

UtrechtDrawsPEC Zwolle
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-22Utrecht1-1PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2025-08-31PEC Zwolle0-2UtrechtEredivisie
2025-02-01PEC Zwolle3-3UtrechtEredivisie
2024-08-11Utrecht1-0PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2024-04-03Utrecht5-1PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2023-08-27PEC Zwolle1-0UtrechtEredivisie
2022-05-07PEC Zwolle1-1UtrechtEredivisie
2021-09-25Utrecht5-1PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2021-01-30Utrecht3-3PEC ZwolleEredivisie
2020-11-21PEC Zwolle1-1UtrechtEredivisie

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match