Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 10

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior

· Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sitard· Referee Ingmar Oostrom

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Fortuna Sittard to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Fortuna SittardDrawExcelsior

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFortuna SittardDrawExcelsior
Model46%22%32%
Market40%27%33%
Published42%26%33%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.74.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fortuna Sittard, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.62Now 2.37 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fortuna Sittard2.622.37-0.25
Draw3.733.55-0.18
Excelsior2.382.88+0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09Fortuna Sittard
1.74Excelsior
Total expected goals
3.83
Attack rating (Fortuna Sittard / Excelsior)
0.95 / 1.04
Defence rating (Fortuna Sittard / Excelsior)
1.09 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 1.9% 1.2% 1 3.8% 8.7% 6.8% 4.0% 2.5% 2 4.8% 8.3% 7.2% 4.1% 2.7% 3 3.3% 5.8% 5.0% 2.9% 1.9% 4+ 2.8% 4.9% 4.3% 2.5% 1.6%

Rows: Fortuna Sittard goals. Columns: Excelsior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fortuna Sittard42%2.41
Draw26%3.89
Excelsior33%3.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.36
Under 2.526%3.79
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.71
Double chance1X (Fortuna Sittard or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Excelsior)58%1.71
Handicap -1Fortuna Sittard win by 2+27%3.71
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior recent form

Fortuna Sittard 3W 2D 1L
Excelsior 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fortuna Sittard at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Excelsior away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard at home only, Excelsior away only.

Injuries & availability

Fortuna Sittard absences

  • E. Michut inactive
  • I. Marquez injury
  • J. Dahlhaus inactive
  • L. Zeefuik inactive
  • M. Ihattaren injury
  • O. Romeny ankle injury
  • R. Bayram knee injury
  • R. Guth inactive
  • Y. Oukili groin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Fortuna Sittard lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 31 M. Branderhorst
  2. 15 N. de Groot
  3. 28 Justin Quincy Hubner
  4. 3 Rodrigo Guth
  5. 12 Ivo Pinto
  6. 20 É. Michut
  7. 6 S. van Ottele
  8. 23 P. Brittijn
  9. 22 Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
  10. 14 S. Simons
  11. 7 K. Peterson

Bench: L. Koopmans, S. Wylin, Iván Márquez, Y. Oukili, J. Dahlhaus, O. Romeny, D. Sinkgraven, K. Reitmaier, Ganni Buyukhan, M. Ihattaren

Excelsior lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 S. van Gassel
  2. 12 K. Bos
  3. 14 J. Plug
  4. 4 C. Widell
  5. 3 R. Meissen
  6. 6 D. van Vianen
  7. 20 L. Hartjes
  8. 10 N. Naujoks
  9. 8 I. Yegoian
  10. 28 N. Groen
  11. 7 A. Sliti

Bench: Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira, Mario Domínguez, A. Jahanbakhsh, S. Janssen, Celton Biai, V. Sulzbacher, D. Garden, I. Silva Timas, Giulliano Cairo, Á. Þorsteinsson

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 4 · draws 2 · Excelsior 2.

Fortuna SittardDrawsExcelsior
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-20Fortuna Sittard2-1ExcelsiorEredivisie
2025-10-19Excelsior1-0Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2024-03-03Fortuna Sittard5-2ExcelsiorEredivisie
2023-08-26Excelsior2-2Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2023-05-21Excelsior3-0Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2022-09-17Fortuna Sittard1-0ExcelsiorEredivisie
2019-02-10Fortuna Sittard4-1ExcelsiorEredivisie
2018-08-11Excelsior1-1Fortuna SittardEredivisie

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match