Market picks
56 fixtures with a published 1X2 number — every row opens the full prediction; 52 more are scheduled and get a page as they approach.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Ours | Market | Conf. | Best odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AA | Serie A | AC MilanOur prob 54%Best odds 1.78 | -2% | 54% | 56% | A | 1.78 | |
| Venezia vs InterSerie AA | Serie A | InterOur prob 69%Best odds 1.38 | -2% | 69% | 71% | A | 1.38 | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AA | Serie A | UdineseOur prob 35%Best odds 2.77 | 0% | 35% | 35% | A | 2.77 | Bet Now |
| Genoa vs JuventusSerie AA | Serie A | JuventusOur prob 55%Best odds 1.79 | 0% | 55% | 55% | A | 1.79 | Bet Now |
| Monza vs NapoliSerie AA | Serie A | NapoliOur prob 52%Best odds 1.82 | -3% | 52% | 55% | A | 1.82 | |
| Frosinone vs LecceSerie AA | Serie A | FrosinoneOur prob 55%Best odds 1.92 | -2% | 55% | 56% | A | 1.92 | |
| Fiorentina vs AtalantaSerie AA | Serie A | FiorentinaOur prob 43%Best odds 2.30 | 0% | 43% | 43% | A | 2.30 | |
| Le Havre vs Paris Saint GermainLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Paris Saint GermainOur prob 72%Best odds 1.26 | -5% | 72% | 77% | A | 1.26 | |
| SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05BundesligaB | Bundesliga | Mainz 05Our prob 45%Best odds 2.16 | 0% | 45% | 45% | B | 2.16 | Bet Now |
| Villarreal vs EspanyolLa LigaA | La Liga | VillarrealOur prob 70%Best odds 1.50 | +4% | 70% | 66% | A | 1.50 | Bet Now |
| Lille vs LensLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LilleOur prob 38%Best odds 2.55 | -1% | 38% | 39% | A | 2.55 | |
| Chelsea vs Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueA | Premier League | ChelseaOur prob 54%Best odds 1.90 | +1% | 54% | 53% | A | 1.90 | Bet Now |
| Levante vs Atletico MadridLa LigaA | La Liga | Atletico MadridOur prob 57%Best odds 1.65 | -3% | 57% | 59% | A | 1.65 | |
| Bologna vs MonzaSerie AA | Serie A | BolognaOur prob 50%Best odds 1.81 | -4% | 50% | 54% | A | 1.81 | |
| Marseille vs ToulouseLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | MarseilleOur prob 45%Best odds 1.95 | -5% | 45% | 50% | A | 1.95 | |
| Strasbourg vs AuxerreLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | StrasbourgOur prob 49%Best odds 1.87 | -3% | 49% | 52% | A | 1.87 | |
| Paris FC vs MonacoLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Paris FCOur prob 42%Best odds 2.39 | +1% | 42% | 42% | A | 2.39 | Bet Now |
| Werder Bremen vs HoffenheimBundesligaA | Bundesliga | HoffenheimOur prob 44%Best odds 2.30 | +2% | 44% | 42% | A | 2.30 | Bet Now |
| Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07BundesligaA | Bundesliga | Borussia M.GladbachOur prob 49%Best odds 2.00 | -1% | 49% | 49% | A | 2.00 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB StuttgartBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayer LeverkusenOur prob 54%Best odds 1.85 | +1% | 54% | 52% | A | 1.85 | Bet Now |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SVBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Eintracht FrankfurtOur prob 59%Best odds 1.69 | +1% | 59% | 58% | A | 1.69 | Bet Now |
| Augsburg vs FreiburgBundesligaA | Bundesliga | FreiburgOur prob 40%Best odds 2.25 | -3% | 40% | 44% | A | 2.25 | |
| FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesligaB | Bundesliga | RasenBallsport LeipzigOur prob 48%Best odds 1.92 | -2% | 48% | 50% | B | 1.92 | |
| Union Berlin vs FC CologneBundesligaA | Bundesliga | FC CologneOur prob 43%Best odds 2.72 | +7% | 43% | 36% | A | 2.72 | Bet Now |
| Bournemouth vs LeedsPremier LeagueA | Premier League | BournemouthOur prob 53%Best odds 2.18 | +8% | 53% | 45% | A | 2.18 | Bet Now |
| Manchester City vs BrightonPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Manchester CityOur prob 56%Best odds 1.67 | -2% | 56% | 58% | A | 1.67 | |
| Brentford vs Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueA | Premier League | BrentfordOur prob 46%Best odds 2.09 | 0% | 46% | 47% | A | 2.09 | |
| Hull City vs IpswichPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Hull CityOur prob 40%Best odds 2.73 | +3% | 40% | 36% | A | 2.73 | Bet Now |
| Coventry vs SunderlandPremier LeagueA | Premier League | SunderlandOur prob 37%Best odds 2.46 | -4% | 37% | 40% | A | 2.46 | |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Celta VigoLa LigaA | La Liga | Rayo VallecanoOur prob 43%Best odds 2.44 | +3% | 43% | 40% | A | 2.44 | Bet Now |
| Nice vs RennesLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | RennesOur prob 40%Best odds 2.53 | +1% | 40% | 40% | A | 2.53 | Bet Now |
| Udinese vs RomaSerie AA | Serie A | RomaOur prob 64%Best odds 1.63 | +3% | 64% | 61% | A | 1.63 | Bet Now |
| Real Betis vs MalagaLa LigaA | La Liga | Real BetisOur prob 67%Best odds 1.42 | -2% | 67% | 69% | A | 1.42 | |
| Tottenham vs Crystal PalacePremier LeagueA | Premier League | TottenhamOur prob 59%Best odds 1.75 | -3% | 59% | 62% | A | 1.75 | |
| Bayern Munich vs Borussia DortmundBundesligaB | Bundesliga | Bayern MunichOur prob 65%Best odds 1.40 | -5% | 65% | 70% | B | 1.40 | |
| AC Milan vs InterSerie AA | Serie A | InterOur prob 46%Best odds 2.17 | +1% | 46% | 46% | A | 2.17 | Bet Now |
| Lyon vs AngersLigue 1B | Ligue 1 | LyonOur prob 65%Best odds 1.44 | -3% | 65% | 68% | B | 1.44 | |
| Lorient vs BrestLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LorientOur prob 39%Best odds 2.50 | 0% | 39% | 39% | A | 2.50 | |
| Estac Troyes vs Le MansLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Estac TroyesOur prob 43%Best odds 2.39 | +1% | 43% | 42% | A | 2.39 | Bet Now |
| Barcelona vs AlavesLa LigaA | La Liga | BarcelonaOur prob 82%Best odds 1.12 | -4% | 82% | 86% | A | 1.12 | |
| Aston Villa vs FulhamPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Aston VillaOur prob 49%Best odds 2.06 | +2% | 49% | 48% | A | 2.06 | Bet Now |
| Lazio vs CagliariSerie AA | Serie A | LazioOur prob 65%Best odds 1.52 | -2% | 65% | 67% | A | 1.52 | |
| Sassuolo vs FiorentinaSerie AA | Serie A | FiorentinaOur prob 40%Best odds 2.50 | +1% | 40% | 40% | A | 2.50 | Bet Now |
| Juventus vs NapoliSerie AA | Serie A | JuventusOur prob 53%Best odds 1.87 | +1% | 53% | 52% | A | 1.87 | Bet Now |
| Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie AA | Serie A | AtalantaOur prob 64%Best odds 1.50 | -2% | 64% | 66% | A | 1.50 | |
| Frosinone vs TorinoSerie AA | Serie A | FrosinoneOur prob 43%Best odds 2.29 | 0% | 43% | 43% | A | 2.29 | |
| Lecce vs GenoaSerie AA | Serie A | LecceOur prob 35%Best odds 2.83 | 0% | 35% | 35% | A | 2.83 | Bet Now |
| Como vs VeneziaSerie AA | Serie A | ComoOur prob 70%Best odds 1.38 | -1% | 70% | 71% | A | 1.38 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaA | La Liga | Deportivo La CorunaOur prob 47%Best odds 2.28 | +3% | 47% | 44% | A | 2.28 | Bet Now |
| Elche vs ValenciaLa LigaA | La Liga | ElcheOur prob 42%Best odds 2.55 | +3% | 42% | 39% | A | 2.55 | Bet Now |
| Getafe vs SevillaLa LigaA | La Liga | SevillaOur prob 38%Best odds 2.56 | -1% | 38% | 38% | A | 2.56 | |
| Racing Santander vs Real MadridLa LigaA | La Liga | Real MadridOur prob 71%Best odds 1.25 | -6% | 71% | 78% | A | 1.25 | |
| Athletic Club vs Real SociedadLa LigaA | La Liga | Athletic ClubOur prob 45%Best odds 2.20 | 0% | 45% | 45% | A | 2.20 | |
| Liverpool vs ArsenalPremier LeagueB | Premier League | ArsenalOur prob 40%Best odds 2.38 | -1% | 40% | 41% | B | 2.38 | |
| Newcastle United vs EvertonPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Newcastle UnitedOur prob 41%Best odds 2.37 | -1% | 41% | 42% | A | 2.37 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaA | La Liga | Deportivo La CorunaOur prob 47%Best odds 2.03 | +3% | 47% | 44% | A | 2.03 | Bet Now |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Probability distribution
56 priced fixtures · 1X2Each bar counts the fixtures whose top selection in this market falls in that probability band — the model’s own spread, not a forecast of how often it is right. Bands are 10 percentage points wide. 12 of 56 sit at 60% or higher.
Other markets for the same fixtures
Every market on this site is priced from one model, so these pages cover the same matches from a different angle.