Market picks
56 fixtures with a published Handicap number — every row opens the full prediction; 52 more are scheduled and get a page as they approach.
| Match | League | Handicap −1 | Our prob | Push (1-goal win) | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AOur call: AC Milan −1 | Serie A | AC Milan −1 | 30% | 19% | A |
| Venezia vs InterSerie AOur call: Inter −1 | Serie A | Inter −1 | 43% | 18% | A |
| Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AOur call: Udinese −1 | Serie A | Udinese −1 | 18% | 17% | A |
| Genoa vs JuventusSerie AOur call: Juventus −1 | Serie A | Juventus −1 | 33% | 23% | A |
| Monza vs NapoliSerie AOur call: Napoli −1 | Serie A | Napoli −1 | 26% | 17% | A |
| Frosinone vs LecceSerie AOur call: Frosinone −1 | Serie A | Frosinone −1 | 32% | 18% | A |
| Fiorentina vs AtalantaSerie AOur call: Fiorentina −1 | Serie A | Fiorentina −1 | 24% | 17% | A |
| Le Havre vs Paris Saint GermainLigue 1Our call: Paris Saint Germain −1 | Ligue 1 | Paris Saint Germain −1 | 38% | 20% | A |
| SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05BundesligaOur call: Mainz 05 −1 | Bundesliga | Mainz 05 −1 | 27% | 18% | B |
| Villarreal vs EspanyolLa LigaOur call: Villarreal −1 | La Liga | Villarreal −1 | 68% | 15% | A |
| Lille vs LensLigue 1Our call: Lille −1 | Ligue 1 | Lille −1 | 18% | 19% | A |
| Chelsea vs Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueOur call: Chelsea −1 | Premier League | Chelsea −1 | 38% | 20% | A |
| Levante vs Atletico MadridLa LigaOur call: Atletico Madrid −1 | La Liga | Atletico Madrid −1 | 29% | 19% | A |
| Bologna vs MonzaSerie AOur call: Bologna −1 | Serie A | Bologna −1 | 20% | 17% | A |
| Marseille vs ToulouseLigue 1Our call: Marseille −1 | Ligue 1 | Marseille −1 | 14% | 16% | A |
| Strasbourg vs AuxerreLigue 1Our call: Strasbourg −1 | Ligue 1 | Strasbourg −1 | 19% | 20% | A |
| Paris FC vs MonacoLigue 1Our call: Paris FC −1 | Ligue 1 | Paris FC −1 | 22% | 22% | A |
| Werder Bremen vs HoffenheimBundesligaOur call: Hoffenheim −1 | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim −1 | 30% | 19% | A |
| Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07BundesligaOur call: Borussia M.Gladbach −1 | Bundesliga | Borussia M.Gladbach −1 | 28% | 19% | A |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB StuttgartBundesligaOur call: Bayer Leverkusen −1 | Bundesliga | Bayer Leverkusen −1 | 37% | 19% | A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SVBundesligaOur call: Eintracht Frankfurt −1 | Bundesliga | Eintracht Frankfurt −1 | 43% | 20% | A |
| Augsburg vs FreiburgBundesligaOur call: Freiburg −1 | Bundesliga | Freiburg −1 | 17% | 14% | A |
| FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesligaOur call: RasenBallsport Leipzig −1 | Bundesliga | RasenBallsport Leipzig −1 | 24% | 18% | B |
| Union Berlin vs FC CologneBundesligaOur call: FC Cologne −1 | Bundesliga | FC Cologne −1 | 44% | 20% | A |
| Bournemouth vs LeedsPremier LeagueOur call: Bournemouth −1 | Premier League | Bournemouth −1 | 59% | 18% | A |
| Manchester City vs BrightonPremier LeagueOur call: Manchester City −1 | Premier League | Manchester City −1 | 30% | 19% | A |
| Brentford vs Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueOur call: Brentford −1 | Premier League | Brentford −1 | 27% | 18% | A |
| Hull City vs IpswichPremier LeagueOur call: Hull City −1 | Premier League | Hull City −1 | 30% | 20% | A |
| Coventry vs SunderlandPremier LeagueOur call: Sunderland −1 | Premier League | Sunderland −1 | 11% | 14% | A |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Celta VigoLa LigaOur call: Rayo Vallecano −1 | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano −1 | 29% | 21% | A |
| Nice vs RennesLigue 1Our call: Rennes −1 | Ligue 1 | Rennes −1 | 23% | 20% | A |
| Udinese vs RomaSerie AOur call: Roma −1 | Serie A | Roma −1 | 57% | 17% | A |
| Real Betis vs MalagaLa LigaOur call: Real Betis −1 | La Liga | Real Betis −1 | 41% | 21% | A |
| Tottenham vs Crystal PalacePremier LeagueOur call: Tottenham −1 | Premier League | Tottenham −1 | 32% | 20% | A |
| Bayern Munich vs Borussia DortmundBundesligaOur call: Bayern Munich −1 | Bundesliga | Bayern Munich −1 | 31% | 20% | B |
| AC Milan vs InterSerie AOur call: Inter −1 | Serie A | Inter −1 | 32% | 18% | A |
| Lyon vs AngersLigue 1Our call: Lyon −1 | Ligue 1 | Lyon −1 | 35% | 23% | B |
| Lorient vs BrestLigue 1Our call: Lorient −1 | Ligue 1 | Lorient −1 | 17% | 20% | A |
| Estac Troyes vs Le MansLigue 1Our call: Estac Troyes −1 | Ligue 1 | Estac Troyes −1 | 25% | 21% | A |
| Barcelona vs AlavesLa LigaOur call: Barcelona −1 | La Liga | Barcelona −1 | 53% | 18% | A |
| Aston Villa vs FulhamPremier LeagueOur call: Aston Villa −1 | Premier League | Aston Villa −1 | 35% | 20% | A |
| Lazio vs CagliariSerie AOur call: Lazio −1 | Serie A | Lazio −1 | 40% | 20% | A |
| Sassuolo vs FiorentinaSerie AOur call: Fiorentina −1 | Serie A | Fiorentina −1 | 25% | 17% | A |
| Juventus vs NapoliSerie AOur call: Juventus −1 | Serie A | Juventus −1 | 35% | 20% | A |
| Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie AOur call: Atalanta −1 | Serie A | Atalanta −1 | 38% | 21% | A |
| Frosinone vs TorinoSerie AOur call: Frosinone −1 | Serie A | Frosinone −1 | 25% | 18% | A |
| Lecce vs GenoaSerie AOur call: Lecce −1 | Serie A | Lecce −1 | 19% | 18% | A |
| Como vs VeneziaSerie AOur call: Como −1 | Serie A | Como −1 | 48% | 17% | A |
| Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaOur call: Deportivo La Coruna −1 | La Liga | Deportivo La Coruna −1 | 35% | 21% | A |
| Elche vs ValenciaLa LigaOur call: Elche −1 | La Liga | Elche −1 | 30% | 20% | A |
| Getafe vs SevillaLa LigaOur call: Sevilla −1 | La Liga | Sevilla −1 | 18% | 18% | A |
| Racing Santander vs Real MadridLa LigaOur call: Real Madrid −1 | La Liga | Real Madrid −1 | 34% | 18% | A |
| Athletic Club vs Real SociedadLa LigaOur call: Athletic Club −1 | La Liga | Athletic Club −1 | 25% | 19% | A |
| Liverpool vs ArsenalPremier LeagueOur call: Arsenal −1 | Premier League | Arsenal −1 | 20% | 18% | B |
| Newcastle United vs EvertonPremier LeagueOur call: Newcastle United −1 | Premier League | Newcastle United −1 | 20% | 18% | A |
| Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaOur call: Deportivo La Coruna −1 | La Liga | Deportivo La Coruna −1 | 35% | 21% | A |
Our prob = the model probability of the selection named on that row. Grade A/B = the fixture is backed by both/one team’s xG record. “Push” is the probability the favourite wins by exactly one goal, which refunds the stake rather than losing it — so this row is not a straight win-or-lose bet. No bookmaker prices are shown on this page: we only record odds for 1X2, so an edge for this market would be invented.
Probability distribution
56 priced fixtures · HandicapEach bar counts the fixtures whose top selection in this market falls in that probability band — the model’s own spread, not a forecast of how often it is right. Bands are 10 percentage points wide. 1 of 56 sit at 60% or higher.
Other markets for the same fixtures
Every market on this site is priced from one model, so these pages cover the same matches from a different angle.