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Football Predictions Over 2.5 Goals — Over/Under Tips

Over/Under 2.5 asks a single question: three goals or more? The probability comes from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline grid behind every other number here, so it can never disagree with our correct-score or BTTS pages. No bookmaker price is blended in: this is the model’s own view.

Fixtures priced 56 with a published analysis page · 52 more later this season
Kicking off today 5 of those fixtures, UTC date
Average probability 69% model probability of the selection we name
Strongest selection 87% highest probability in this market

Market picks

56 fixtures with a published Over/Under number — every row opens the full prediction; 52 more are scheduled and get a page as they approach.

Fixtures with our Over/Under selection and its model probability
Match League SelectionOur prob Conf.
AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals69% A
Venezia vs InterSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals85% A
Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals61% A
Genoa vs JuventusSerie AOur call: Under 2.5 goals Serie A Under 2.5 goals54% A
Monza vs NapoliSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals76% A
Frosinone vs LecceSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals84% A
Fiorentina vs AtalantaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals75% A
Le Havre vs Paris Saint GermainLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals79% A
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05BundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals78% B
Villarreal vs EspanyolLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals87% A
Lille vs LensLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals63% A
Chelsea vs Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals76% A
Levante vs Atletico MadridLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals73% A
Bologna vs MonzaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals63% A
Marseille vs ToulouseLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals66% A
Strasbourg vs AuxerreLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals56% A
Paris FC vs MonacoLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals50% A
Werder Bremen vs HoffenheimBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals68% A
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07BundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals69% A
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB StuttgartBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals74% A
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SVBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals75% A
Augsburg vs FreiburgBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals80% A
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals69% B
Union Berlin vs FC CologneBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals71% A
Bournemouth vs LeedsPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals74% A
Manchester City vs BrightonPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals74% A
Brentford vs Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals75% A
Hull City vs IpswichPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals66% A
Coventry vs SunderlandPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals60% A
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta VigoLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals54% A
Nice vs RennesLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals66% A
Udinese vs RomaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals87% A
Real Betis vs MalagaLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals67% A
Tottenham vs Crystal PalacePremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals71% A
Bayern Munich vs Borussia DortmundBundesligaOur call: Over 2.5 goals Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals63% B
AC Milan vs InterSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals81% A
Lyon vs AngersLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals62% B
Lorient vs BrestLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals51% A
Estac Troyes vs Le MansLigue 1Our call: Over 2.5 goals Ligue 1 Over 2.5 goals60% A
Barcelona vs AlavesLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals80% A
Aston Villa vs FulhamPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals73% A
Lazio vs CagliariSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals73% A
Sassuolo vs FiorentinaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals77% A
Juventus vs NapoliSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals67% A
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals67% A
Frosinone vs TorinoSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals73% A
Lecce vs GenoaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals58% A
Como vs VeneziaSerie AOur call: Over 2.5 goals Serie A Over 2.5 goals87% A
Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals61% A
Elche vs ValenciaLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals61% A
Getafe vs SevillaLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals52% A
Racing Santander vs Real MadridLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals83% A
Athletic Club vs Real SociedadLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals66% A
Liverpool vs ArsenalPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals65% B
Newcastle United vs EvertonPremier LeagueOur call: Over 2.5 goals Premier League Over 2.5 goals62% A
Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaOur call: Over 2.5 goals La Liga Over 2.5 goals61% A

Our prob = the model probability of the selection named on that row. Grade A/B = the fixture is backed by both/one team’s xG record. No bookmaker prices are shown on this page: we only record odds for 1X2, so an edge for this market would be invented.

Probability distribution

56 priced fixtures · Over/Under

Each bar counts the fixtures whose top selection in this market falls in that probability band — the model’s own spread, not a forecast of how often it is right. Bands are 10 percentage points wide. 48 of 56 sit at 60% or higher.

Other markets for the same fixtures

Every market on this site is priced from one model, so these pages cover the same matches from a different angle.

All markets

Every probability on this page is produced by our own model — expected-goals team ratings turned into a Dixon-Coles scoreline grid, blended with de-vigged market odds where we record them. How our model works →

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