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Football Correct Score Predictions

Correct score asks for the exact final result. The model assigns a probability to every scoreline; this page lists the single likeliest one per fixture. Expect small numbers — a 15% scoreline is a strong call in this market.

Fixtures priced 56 with a published analysis page · 52 more later this season
Kicking off today 5 of those fixtures, UTC date
Average probability 10% model probability of the selection we name
Strongest selection 14% highest probability in this market

Market picks

56 fixtures with a published Correct Score number — every row opens the full prediction; 52 more are scheduled and get a page as they approach.

Fixtures with our Correct Score selection and its model probability
Match League Likeliest scoreOur prob Conf.
AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–111% A
Venezia vs InterSerie AOur call: 1–2 Serie A 1–27% A
Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–113% A
Genoa vs JuventusSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–113% A
Monza vs NapoliSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–19% A
Frosinone vs LecceSerie AOur call: 2–2 Serie A 2–27% A
Fiorentina vs AtalantaSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–19% A
Le Havre vs Paris Saint GermainLigue 1Our call: 1–2 Ligue 1 1–28% A
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05BundesligaOur call: 1–1 Bundesliga 1–18% B
Villarreal vs EspanyolLa LigaOur call: 3–1 La Liga 3–17% A
Lille vs LensLigue 1Our call: 1–1 Ligue 1 1–111% A
Chelsea vs Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueOur call: 2–1 Premier League 2–19% A
Levante vs Atletico MadridLa LigaOur call: 1–1 La Liga 1–110% A
Bologna vs MonzaSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–112% A
Marseille vs ToulouseLigue 1Our call: 1–1 Ligue 1 1–110% A
Strasbourg vs AuxerreLigue 1Our call: 1–1 Ligue 1 1–112% A
Paris FC vs MonacoLigue 1Our call: 1–1 Ligue 1 1–112% A
Werder Bremen vs HoffenheimBundesligaOur call: 1–1 Bundesliga 1–111% A
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07BundesligaOur call: 1–1 Bundesliga 1–111% A
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB StuttgartBundesligaOur call: 2–1 Bundesliga 2–19% A
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SVBundesligaOur call: 2–1 Bundesliga 2–19% A
Augsburg vs FreiburgBundesligaOur call: 1–1 Bundesliga 1–17% A
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesligaOur call: 1–1 Bundesliga 1–111% B
Union Berlin vs FC CologneBundesligaOur call: 1–2 Bundesliga 1–29% A
Bournemouth vs LeedsPremier LeagueOur call: 2–0 Premier League 2–09% A
Manchester City vs BrightonPremier LeagueOur call: 1–1 Premier League 1–19% A
Brentford vs Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueOur call: 1–1 Premier League 1–19% A
Hull City vs IpswichPremier LeagueOur call: 1–1 Premier League 1–111% A
Coventry vs SunderlandPremier LeagueOur call: 1–1 Premier League 1–112% A
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta VigoLa LigaOur call: 1–1 La Liga 1–113% A
Nice vs RennesLigue 1Our call: 1–1 Ligue 1 1–110% A
Udinese vs RomaSerie AOur call: 1–3 Serie A 1–37% A
Real Betis vs MalagaLa LigaOur call: 1–1 La Liga 1–110% A
Tottenham vs Crystal PalacePremier LeagueOur call: 1–1 Premier League 1–110% A
Bayern Munich vs Borussia DortmundBundesligaOur call: 1–1 Bundesliga 1–112% B
AC Milan vs InterSerie AOur call: 1–2 Serie A 1–27% A
Lyon vs AngersLigue 1Our call: 1–1 Ligue 1 1–110% B
Lorient vs BrestLigue 1Our call: 1–1 Ligue 1 1–113% A
Estac Troyes vs Le MansLigue 1Our call: 1–1 Ligue 1 1–111% A
Barcelona vs AlavesLa LigaOur call: 2–1 La Liga 2–18% A
Aston Villa vs FulhamPremier LeagueOur call: 1–1 Premier League 1–19% A
Lazio vs CagliariSerie AOur call: 2–1 Serie A 2–19% A
Sassuolo vs FiorentinaSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–19% A
Juventus vs NapoliSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–111% A
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–110% A
Frosinone vs TorinoSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–110% A
Lecce vs GenoaSerie AOur call: 1–1 Serie A 1–113% A
Como vs VeneziaSerie AOur call: 3–1 Serie A 3–17% A
Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaOur call: 1–1 La Liga 1–112% A
Elche vs ValenciaLa LigaOur call: 1–1 La Liga 1–112% A
Getafe vs SevillaLa LigaOur call: 1–1 La Liga 1–114% A
Racing Santander vs Real MadridLa LigaOur call: 1–2 La Liga 1–27% A
Athletic Club vs Real SociedadLa LigaOur call: 1–1 La Liga 1–111% A
Liverpool vs ArsenalPremier LeagueOur call: 1–1 Premier League 1–111% B
Newcastle United vs EvertonPremier LeagueOur call: 1–1 Premier League 1–112% A
Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaOur call: 1–1 La Liga 1–112% A

Our prob = the model probability of the selection named on that row. Grade A/B = the fixture is backed by both/one team’s xG record. The likeliest single scoreline can point the other way from our 1X2 pick: a home win is the sum of many scorelines, while this column is one cell of the grid. No bookmaker prices are shown on this page: we only record odds for 1X2, so an edge for this market would be invented.

Probability distribution

56 priced fixtures · Correct Score

Each bar counts the fixtures whose top selection in this market falls in that probability band — the model’s own spread, not a forecast of how often it is right. Bands are 10 percentage points wide.

Other markets for the same fixtures

Every market on this site is priced from one model, so these pages cover the same matches from a different angle.

All markets

Every probability on this page is produced by our own model — expected-goals team ratings turned into a Dixon-Coles scoreline grid, blended with de-vigged market odds where we record them. How our model works →